Crossfit WOD

Warm up
10 times:
1 clean (140x6, 180x1, 160x3)

Practice Handstand Push ups.

Article: More Corn

Farmers Head to Fields to Plant Corn, Lots of It - New York Times

Reference The Omnivore's Dilemma (my review) which suggests that the economy will find new ways to consume more corn, via overfeeding the population, or as is the current rage, turn the corn into ethanol. The article claims that farmers will make $110 more an acre with the increase in corn prices. What it fails to mention is that the farmer will then draw less subsidy from the government thereby having little affect on the farmers bottom line. But maybe the farmer will get genetically enhanced corn that will yield more per acre, but then again, the genetically enhanced corn seed costs more than the regular.

Industry wins, the farmer continues to break about even, and the environment loses big time. Inject that nitrogen into the ground via chemical fertilizer that could be made (it will be made with fossil fuel based energy) with the ethanol that the corn may eventually become.

What would be truly interesting is a cost analysis of how much money is really spent on the full life cycle of the production of ethanol vs. gasoline. My guess is that ethanol is going to cost more "energy" and most likely more money. Cleaner burning yes, but little good that does for the polluted water supply that results from the chemical fertilization of the land.

Maybe ethanol isn't that alternative at all, and I'm not at all against looking for new options, I just think a more through consideration of consequences is appropriate.

Crossfit Workout

50 Box jump, 24 inch box
50 Jumping pull-ups
50 Dumbell swings, 35 lb
Walking Lunge, 50 steps
50 Knees to elbows
50 Push press, 45 lb
50 Back extensions
50 Wall ball shots, 10 lb ball
50 Burpees
50 Double unders
Time: 42 min

Run 2.5 miles, aerobic, 28 min

Interval Run

6 times:
Sprint 1:30 min
Rest 1:00 min

Quote: Inspiration

You can't wait for inspiration. You have to go after it with a club. - Jack London

Blog: Be the Bank

How to Lend Money on Prosper - Investor Trip

Great explanation article of the lending service www.prosper.com if you think about this, it is a microcosm of what big banks are doing with credit derivatives. You lend (or borrow) money from other users, etc. The savvy will make money and the foolish will loose money here but it is an opportunity to cut the bank out, solicit money for start ups, etc.

Reminiscent of the 90's adds with a guy on a street corner with a sign "money to lend." That is there is a lot of money out there but it seams that a lot of rich folks don't have the connectivity or the inclination to get it invested in some type of wholesale investment.

Article: McCaffrey Paints Gloomy Picture

McCaffrey Paints Gloomy Picture of Iraq - washingtonpost.com

While the article does find some highlights in GEN McCaffrey's points, I found the comments on the growing, strengthening insurgency most interesting. You don't see articles on the insurgency itself, imagine headlines like "3,000 foreign fighters arrive in Iraq today, living conditions are tough, but the fighters are excited about starting operations"

McCaffrey is gloomy about the continuing strength of the insurgency. At this point, he said, about 27,000 fighters are being held, and at least 20,000 others have been killed, yet enemy combatants continue to produce new leaders and foot soldiers. The result, five years into the war, he said, is that "their sophistication, numbers and lethality go up -- not down -- as they incur these staggering battle losses."

Crossfit Workout

Long warmup (Bench, inverted row, overhead squats, knee raises, no weight straight leg dead lifts)

Five Times:
24 Wall Balls
15 Pull Ups (Lat Pull Downs after failure)
15 Dips

20 minute anaerobic run

Personal Finance Blogs

Bunch of Personal Finance Blogs, etc, links to some of the more recent posts I noted.

Getting Green, Lots of personal finance ideas, good discussions, etc
The Best of Getting Green - Getting Green
How to Pay Taxes on Small Business Income - Getting Green
Book Reviews: 48 Days to the Work You Love by Dan Miller - Getting Green


Making Our Way, a upper middle class couple shows how goal setting is key and talks about the challenges and successes of personal finance, only partial feeds though.
makingourway: The Second Networth Carnival for March 2007

The Real Returns, blog only, no feed, but good technical analysis

My Simple Trading System, annoying to read as a blog, but the feeds are complete, lots of links to carnivals, etc, good catch all site.

Web Site: Top Feeds

Top 40 sites according to FeedBurner stats - franticindustries.

Fill Google Reader with these top RSS feeds. Still playing with whether I like Google Reader (via Google Homepage) or the IE 7.0 feed reader.

Top Blogs from technorati, though a difficult site to use.
http://technorati.com/pop/blogs/?faves=1

Article: Tired of Fighting?

U.S. Envoy Says He Met With Iraq Rebels - New York Times

The photo above is pulled from the NYT. I'm always intrigued at the photo choice of the NYT Editors, clearly they wish to convey more than just a photo of the U.S. Ambassador of Iraq. The name tape on his armor reads "THE MAN," think what you will about that. While I have never met Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad I'm guessing this is a super energetic man who's charisma can be felt by those around him. Of course, the NYT shows a photo of an exhausted man, taken in context with the article, one can infer helplessness and maybe even a bit of despair. A photo of a Humvee is well framed though the bullet proof glass of his SUV.

The article itself talks about meeting with insurgents, or really warlords, more moderate insurgents though. While this seems like a bad thing, that we would have to stoop to this, really, it is the way of things in the Middle East and it is encouraging that one can read about it in open media. Progress through diplomacy, perhaps.

Quote: Understanding

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair

Crossfit WOD

Tabatas: 20 seconds on, 10 seconds rest, 8 times each

10 lb Wall Balls
75 lb Sumo deadlift high pulls
20" Box jump
75 lb Push Press
Row

Rest 10 min

100m sprints

Travel: India Primer

India Made Easy - New York Times

Great once article overview of visiting India, especially if you only have a week or so. Do the Taj then get to places like Shahjahanabad to really see whats going on. As with anything, I would love to have a tour guide while I wandered around there, or even better, to be there for business.

I'm particularly interested in the food. Indian, prepared by Indians, Bangladeshis, no shortage of curry.

It pays to be friendly to any sweaty, orange-glowing man you see perched over the fire-filled manhole of a bakery's tandoori oven. He may reach in and fish out a free naan for you, carefully trying to avoid burning yet another scar into his forearm. Even the most nervous of street-food eaters should try the fresh-baked sweet potato, dusted with some delicious species of sneezing powder.

Karim's restaurant, near the Jama Masjid, remains one of the best places to sample rich, if rather oily, Mughlai food. Try the mutton qormas with romali rotis and seekh kebabs, or, if you are adventurous, the mutton brain, if only to look at it sitting eerily in the middle of the table.

Run Crossfit Run

Run 15 min (Anerobic)

Five Times:
50 Jumps
40 Squats
30 Situps
20 Pushups
10 Pull-Ups

Run 20 min (Aerobic)

Total: 1:06

Travel: Ski Vebier, Switzerland

Frugal Traveler in Verbier, Switzerland - New York Times

The author's group stayed just outside of more expensive resorty Verbier in Le Châble, but everything you could expect form the alps. Great little (though expensive) restaurants tucked throughout the slopes, challenging terrain, and, by American standards, cheap lifts.

Frugal concept here is save money on lodging and the public transit between the "lodging town" and the "ski town" is cheap and convenient. Figure you ski, après-ski, and want to be in bed around 8pm, so it works.

This area is about 20mi east of Zermatt (over mountain) and then just to the west of Chamonix, France.

Where? Google Map

Crossfit Workout

Run 400m
15 Overhead Press (65 lb)
15 Knees to elbows
15 Bench Press (115 lb)
Run 400m
15 Push Press (85 lb)
15 Knees to elbows
15 Bench Press (115 lb)
Run 400m
15 Jerk (85 lb)
15 Knees to elbows
15 Bench Press (115 lb)
Run 400m
Time: 22:15

Run 20 min, low anerobic (avg HR 156)

Blog: More Erbil

Michael J. Totten: A New Power Rises in Iraq

Take that Vanity Fair article and check these photos out. From the sound of the reporter, and heck, the look of the photos, Eribl is happening. How do you invest in Erbil? You know someone is, and as the article points out, Hilton Hotels is one of the investors. Folks are thinking long term up there.

And when you really step back, it was the envision of Iraq that made this possible, and Eribl will spread, Iran is right there, and I don't care what your religion is, you'll enjoy surfing Wi Fi in a 5 star hotel.

(Photos from the link above)

Article: Kurdish Iraq

Holiday in Iraq: Politics & Power: vanityfair.com: "Instead, the golden Kurdish sunburst emblem sits at the center " (In reference to the flag flown in Kurdish Iraq)

One of the better stories coming out of Iraq. The Kurds in the north could care less if Iraq as a whole can get it together, they getting their own program together. After reading about how the land is secure and the economy is flourishing you can't help but think it won't be long until Kurdistan separates from Iraq. Mind Turkey to the north, though, but I think, as addressed at the end of the article, America has some history with the Kurds and it is unlikely that Turkey with its tendency towards interest in the EU would avoid such a move.

Anyhow, if Iraq "falls apart" I think it is safe to assume that you'll still be able to vacation in Erbil and catch up with some Christian Assyrians.

Article: Modern Iraqi Culture

The Modern Seven Pillars of Iraq - Army Magazine, Feb 07 (pdf)

This article highlights seven things that I think most western folks working in Iraq, working about Iraq, or even talking about Iraq don't know, haven't considered, or forgotten. Bottomline, westerners have different values than Middle Easterners, and maybe that is ok.

The Pillars pasted from the article:

1—Iraqi society is based upon a strict patriarchal hierarchy
under which a sheikh has absolute power over his
tribe. The concept of civil government centralized at the
provincial and national level is still relatively new (only a
few decades old) to the Iraqis, whose social structure remains
tribal. As such, the Western concept of democracy and the value of
sharing power is an alien concept within their society. It is only
important to Iraqi officials while the U.S. officials coordinating
reconstruction efforts are in the room dispensing benefits.

2—The primary concern of Iraqi officials is not democracy
or the political evolution of a successful Iraqi nationstate.
It is the use of their position in government to gain
personal wealth, as well as benefits for their extended family,
tribe or sect. This observation is not a character attack,
but merely reflects the reality that in a Bedouin society,
where the foundational social unit is the tribe, one’s primary
loyalty and goals run to that tribe. Saddam’s government
was packed with his family and tribal members because
they were loyal and because it was expected of him,
within the culture, to bring benefits to his tribe by virtue of
his prominence. Other Iraqi officials are no different in this
regard; it is their cultural norm for the political leader to
work in his self-interest and for that of his tribe.

3—If Iraqis do not value something, they will not fight
for it. This is one reason why the Iraqi army made such
poor showings in the Gulf War and in Operation Iraqi
Freedom-1 (OIF-1). They melted away because they
were being asked to fight for something in which they did not
believe. Yet these same Iraqis are tenaciously fighting the
world’s predominant military power tooth and nail in
their tribal areas and in their cities. What’s the difference?
The insurgents are now fighting for something they believe
in—expelling foreign troops and sectarian enemies from the tribal
areas and cities that they hold dear.

4—In a society that is evolving from a difficult Bedouin
desert existence, where water and other base staples of life
have historically been in short supply, the Iraqis have
learned that the group that controls the resources of the
province or nation lives; he who does not dies. Sharing
of resources or power with competing groups outside one’s
own tribe is an unfamiliar and foreign concept.

5—Individually, Iraqis are a warm and generous people.
As the size of their group grows, however, whether as
a family unit, tribe or an entire sect, their generosity to
those not within their social circle wanes. The historic
sense that one only takes care of his own—borne of their
harsh desert life—minimizes their collective willingness to
compromise or share resources or power. The lessons they
have learned through centuries of desert survival is that
only the strong get the resources and survive. As such,
armed struggle for power, not compromise and democratic-
style debate, is the norm.

6—Trading and bartering for personal or tribal gain is
part of the Iraqi/Bedouin culture. Self-sacrifice for the general
welfare is not. Accordingly, our frustration with “Why
don’t the Iraqis just try to get along for their mutual benefit?”
is a Western, culturally based value judgment being
applied to an Oriental society for whom violent conflict to
gain advantage is the norm. If the current Sunni insurgency
is to be stopped, therefore, we must demonstrate to
the Iraqi insurgents that the personal benefits of a peace
with the Shiites clearly outweighs the possible gain by
continuing to fight for dominance. Increased U.S. military operations
will inflame this struggle for political dominance,
not diminish it.

7—Iraqis do not share Western concepts on the use, passage
or value of time. They sincerely believe that if a matter
is truly important, Allah will control the outcome, and the
personal efforts of individuals are merely tangential to that
outcome. This is a source of frustration for U.S. servicemembers
who have served in Iraq and seen an apparent lack of
resolve, follow-through or reliability from his Iraqi counterpart.
The concept of inshallah—”God willing” or “only if God wills it, will it
happen”—overshadows all aspects of Iraqi life, including reconstruction
and political evolution. As such, the political resolution, if any, in
Iraq will be achieved according to the glacial pace of Iraqi society,
not based on a U.S. timetable. It is critical to recognize this concept if
we wish to set realistic timetables for the continued presence and
relevance of U.S. troops in Iraq.

Crossfit Workout

4 times:
21 Sit ups
21 40lb kettlebell swings
21 Push ups
21 box jumps
21 lunge steps

Article: Google offers Cost-per-Action Ads

Google Tests an Ad Idea: Pay Only for Results - New York Times

Affiliate advertising is nothing new, an author's site might have a link to amazon and if you by the book the author (or whoever placed the ad) gets a cut. Google is simply taking their super simple, but cutting edge ad system and taking some risk away form the ad purchasing customer. As the article mentions, it also prevents "clicking scams."

Emerging types of online advertising are exciting, advertisers have to find innovative ways to non-disruptively sell their wares. It has to be unobtrusive and easy to investigate. The only time I click on an add is following a Google search when it seems like the in line Google ads match my query better than the actual search results, and I click the ad knowingly. How to market in this day and age?

Men's Health Interval Run

6 Times:
2 min run (7/10 intensity)
2 min rest (3/10 intensity)

Crossfit Workout

3 times:
50 squats
21 Pull Ups
21 Dips
10 120lb Hanging Power Clings

2.5 mi. aerobic run, slow

Article: Freidman on the Surge

The Troika and the Surge - New York Times

I buy in to this pretty big. I've heard General Petraus has said, "If the Iraqis don't get stay on board with the surge, we'll just leave," and the congress is enabling him to say that. This is worth coming back to in one year and considering how things played out.

In full:
The New York Times
March 21, 2007
Op-Ed Columnist
The Troika and the Surge
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

President Bush’s Iraq surge policy is about a month old now, and there is only one thing you can say about it for certain: no matter what anyone in Congress, the military or the public has to say, it’s going ahead. The president has the authority to do it and the veto power to prevent anyone from stopping him. Therefore, there’s only one position to have on the surge anymore: hope that it works.

Does this mean that Democrats in Congress who are trying to shut down the war and force a deadline should take the advice of critics and shut up and let the surge play out?

No, just the opposite. I would argue that for the first time we have — by accident — the sort of balanced policy trio that had we had it in place four years go might have spared us the mess of today. It’s the Pelosi-Petraeus-Bush troika.

I hope the Democrats, under Speaker Nancy Pelosi, keep pushing to set a deadline for withdrawal from Iraq, because they are providing two patriotic services that the Republicans failed to offer in the previous four years: The first is policy discipline. Had Republicans spent the previous four years regularly questioning Don Rumsfeld’s ignorant bromides and demanding that the White House account for failures in Iraq, we might have had the surge in 2003 — when it was obvious we did not have enough troops on the ground — rather than in 2007, when the chances of success are much diminished.

Because the Republicans controlled the House and Senate, and because many conservatives sat in mute silence the last four years, the administration could too easily ignore its critics and drag out policies in Iraq that were not working. With the Democrats back in Congressional control, that is no longer possible.
The other useful function Speaker Pelosi and her colleagues are performing is to give the president and Gen. David Petraeus, our commander in Iraq, the leverage of a deadline without a formal deadline. How so? The surge can’t work without political reconciliation among Iraqi factions, which means Sunni-Shiite negotiations — and such negotiations are unlikely to work without America having the “leverage” of telling the parties that if they don’t compromise, we will leave. (Deadlines matter. At some point, Iraqis have to figure this out themselves.)

Since Mr. Bush refuses to set a deadline, Speaker Pelosi is the next best thing. Do not underestimate how useful it is for General Petraeus to be able to say to Iraqi politicians: “Look guys, Pelosi’s mad as hell — and she has a big following! I don’t want to quit, but Americans won’t stick with this forever. I only have a few months.”

Speaker Pelosi: Keep the heat on.

As for General Petraeus, I have no idea whether his military strategy is right, but at least he has one — and he has stated that by “late summer” we should know if it’s working. As General Petraeus told the BBC last week, “I have an obligation to the young men and women in uniform out here, that if I think it’s not going to happen, to tell them that it’s not going to happen, and there needs to be a change.”

We need to root for General Petraeus to succeed, and hold him to those words if he doesn’t — not only for the sake of the soldiers on the ground, but also so that Mr. Bush is not allowed to drag the war out until the end of his term, and then leave it for his successor to unwind.

But how will General Petraeus or Congress judge if the surge is working? It may be obvious, but it may not be. It will likely require looking beneath the surface calm of any Iraqi neighborhood — where violence has been smothered by the surge of U.S. troops — and trying to figure out: what will happen here when those U.S. troops leave? Remember, enough U.S. troops can quiet any neighborhood for a while. The real test is whether a self-sustaining Iraqi army and political consensus are being put in place that can hold after we leave.

It will also likely require asking: Are the Shiite neighborhoods quieting down as a result of reconciliation or because their forces are just lying low so the U.S. will focus on whacking the Sunnis — in effect, carrying out the civil war on the Shiites’ behalf, so that when we leave they can dominate more easily?
When you’re sitting on a volcano, it is never easy to tell exactly what is happening underneath — or what will happen if you move. But those are the judgments we may soon have to make. In the meantime, since Bush is going to be Bush, let Pelosi be Pelosi and Petraeus be Petraeus — and hope for the best. For now, we don’t have much choice.

Article: History of Mortgage Interest Deductions

Who Needs the Mortgage-Interest Deduction? - New York Times

Cited in the Freakonomics Blog at http://www.freakonomics.com/blog/2007/03/20/writing-for-money/ which is worth the read in its own right.

While the history is long, the take away is that such deductions are not going anywhere and if they did go away the housing market would adjust negatively to reflected most buyers reduced buying power.

Article: Commodity Investment

Buying Into the Company, Not the Commodity - New York Times

Simply suggesting that it is worth buying the companies that deal in commodities vs. the futures, less volatility, etc., and in the long term, the cost of goods will rise. Population up, Urban area up, commodity prices up, plus, science is coming up with new uses for corn, petroleum, and everything else every day. Gold and Silver are interested, but it would make sense that as wealthy classes increase there will be a continued demand for precious metals.

I wonder how important the notion of tying money to precious vs. untied currency really matters anymore with such a globalized market place that will gladly slam a county of inflating its money supply.

Book: The Omnivore's Dilemma

The Omnivore’s Dilemma
Michael Pollan

My Rating (1-10): 8

The book follows four meals from creation to stomach.

The Industrial meal, from McDonalds
Ties the history of corn, and then the economics back to why industrial food is the way it is. Corn yields more energy per acre than anything else we have. Push that through live stock or process it into corn syrup and you get cheap food. Cheap food that appeals to our human nature of liking sweet things because sweet is calories. Corn growing is encouraged by cooperate America because it is cheap, so more is grown, which drives down the price. So farmers want more money, so they grow more corn, further driving down the price and the cycle repeats. Companies like Cargill and ADM, private companies, handle all the middle stuff. They buy the corn and process it and sell its derivatives to all comers. They lobby the government to keep corn product consumption high. The result is lots of cheap food that enables the population to expand. The problem is that we can only eat so much, hence marketing to get us to eat more. The tragedy is that animals that wouldn’t usually eat corn are forced to, which is basically against nature, and problems of disease in our food supply (E coli, Mad Cow Disease) flourish. In the end, industrial food appeals to our tastes, it is everywhere, and we eat it.

The Industrial Organic Meal, from Whole Foods
Just because things are done the organic way doesn’t mean that the desire to produce huge quantities doesn’t take a toll on the land. No fertilizers results in over tilling land, etc. All in all, perhaps Organic is better for the land, and by the authors report, and I suppose my own experience, the food tastes better. Most interesting is how the market has manipulated the laws such that certain things are permissive that may not be organic in nature, such as how the crops are designed to fit the specifications of a piece of machinery, that is, organic, isn’t free range. Of course, to be free range, the hen house need only have a little door to the outside land which is avoided because it is barren, and away from the food in the house.

The Pastoral Meal from Polyface Farm
This meal comes from Polyface Farm http://www.polyfacefarms.com/ in Swoope, VA and of all that has been talked about, it makes you want to go there and pay any price for a meal. Everything is tied to everything else, the cows are rotated to “mow” the grass, then come the portable chicken coops to clear the fields or bug larva from the cow pats and add nitrogen to the land via feces. And meanwhile the rabbits with urine high in ammonia suspended over hens that temper the ammonia with the nitrogen rich feces fertilize woodchips that go into the barn. In the winter, in the barn, the cow manure collects, throw in some corn as it happens, bring the pigs in the spring to dive for the corn and till the pile and you have got a bunch of rich compost to spread around the felids. Then send the pigs into the forest, the feed themselves by eating the rye grasses and keeping the trees happy, moisture retaining, farm field cooling, etc. Simply amazing to watch nature and the symbiotic relationships that are so easily (well, a lot of work really) cultivated. And from the sound of it, the food is just simply the best food you might ever taste.

The proceeds are seasonal, red meat in the winter, when it’s cold out, not spring lamb, the ideal birthing time because the grass is lush in April. The industrial food cycle is out of synch with nature (p 253). Polyface products are delivered to Charlottesville, VA to fine restaurants and I’m sure I’ll make the trip. You could also stop by the farm to pick up the products or perhaps find them in a D.C. farmers market, this is eating on a small fresh, scale.

The meal is a Polyface chicken, corn, and a soufflé made with Polyface Eggs, and the author and his friends found the chicken more chickener, as expected. Some discussion is made of the health benefits and you continue to see that the industrial food complex is producing food in ways nature never intended. Out of balance diets for meat make for out of balance diets for humans.

The Hunted Gathered Meal
The hunt is for wild boar in Sonoma, CA and discusses how human instinct is prepared for hunting. How hunters can maintain a still crouch longer as the body adapts to the instinctual activity. Alertness and hunger drive a hunter, stalking thorough the woods. Eventually, the author gets his pig and then, with the aid of his friend, learns to skin his prey.

I found myself closely reading the gory details of the “dressing” of the pig. I had avoided any close reference to industrial slaughter. I felt slightly more comfortable with the pastoral slaughter of chickens, but the hunted pig was easier, this was one animal, which had been well discussed by the author’s friend as to how each part would be used to produce different cuts of ham and sausage. It felt appropriate and comfortable as the pig was eviscerated and prepared.

The human reaction of disgust is mentioned several times regarding how that mechanism protects us from things that shouldn’t eat. Think of the smell of decaying flesh, slaughter, waste, etc; those things disgust us and we don’t want to eat when we feel that.

The last adventure is “hunting” for mushrooms. The entire process of hunting mushrooms is incredible. Science knows little about mushrooms, why they fruit, how they develop, the symbiotic relationship with the trees they are always found near, etc. A forest could have no mushrooms until a fire, which will trigger the fungus to produce the mushroom; it is thought that this allows the mushroom spores to migrate to their new land. Fungi are essential to the land, they decompose leaves, etc, creating the circle of life and if nothing were to decompose, the food chain would end. Interesting there hasn’t been more study.

The meal came from a Pate of Pig Liver, Egg Fettuccine with sautéed Morels (mushroom), braised leg and grilled loin of wild Sonoma pig, wild east bay yeast bread, garden salad, cherry galette, chamomile tea, and a petite syrah. He attempted to follow a few rules, but admits some were bent: 1. Everything on the menu must have been hunted, gathered, or grown by the author, 2. The menu should include animal, vegetable, fungus, and minerals, 3. Everything served must be in season and fresh, 4. No money may be spent, except for already purchased spices, etc, 5. Guests would be folks who helped him hunt and gather, 6. He would cook the meal himself.

In All
This is the sort of book that all high schoolers should read. I come away knowing where my food comes from, for better or worse, and also, where I would like it to come from. Good food takes time and is expensive, industrial food is fast and cheap. The transparency of the hunted and gathered meal is something few of us have experienced. How many times would you say you have sat to a meal and know the story of each ingredient?

As the book progresses you go from disgust to desire, and it would be well worth spending some time procuring food from the wild to truly appreciate what the author refers to as the body of the earth.

Hill Run

Max Heart Rate Run, Hills

15 min warmup
1 easy 400m hill
1 moderate 400m hill
1 max 300m hill (HRM 179 BPM)
5 200m hills 95% MHR (30 sec, 2 min rest)

Workout

Set 1, 3 Times:
10 Bench Press
10 Barbell Row

Set 2, 3 Times:
5 Pull Ups
5 Thrusters

Set 3, 3 Times:
10 Dips
10 Lateral Raises

4 mile, low heart rate jog: 47 min, 78% MHR Avg

Article: OPED - The Army, After Iraq

The Army, After Iraq - New York Times

While there is a bit more political retoritic and drama than I care for, the concens about the army are real, this force needs to be reinvented and set for future "peace waging" missions. A bit more bitter than is required, but well said.

Article: State of Real Estate

Pop Psychology - New York Times

Real Estate Bubble Article

Standard cautions about the housing market, but a good argument that homes are unlike stocks in that they are not all for sale, people live in them, and can wait out a down turn in the market. Nothing new there. Easy to forget how cheap mortgage rates really are right now. Rents have not kept up with home prices, which is too bad for investing in rental properties. As for commercial real estate, several lines point to the continuing commercial bubble that isn't quite showing signs of popping. Wonder what some of the correlations between residential and commercial are.

Most interesting is the last paragraph discussing increasing liquidity in the real estate market:

In fact, people are always bolder in a market that is liquid — they figure they can get out — than with an asset for which selling requires a listing, a broker, a title search. Which is why the new Web sites like Zillow.com, on which people can check their home values as often as the price of Yahoo!, and even Shiller’s dream of an active futures market, may not be the welcome innovations they might seem. The stickiness of home markets, the lack of continuous liquidity and information, makes them different from stocks. Come the day when they are broadcasting your home value on CNBC, look out

Makes you think to err on the side of caution when investigating RIET's and worth considering the effects of credit derivatives with respect to real estate futures, and a more liquid market in whole.

Several other good Real Estate Articles from today's NYT:

Down the Middle
By ANNA BERNASEK
The high and low ends of the real estate market are doing pretty well. It’s in between that’s the problem.

Russ Whitney Wants You to Be Rich (Creating wealth is all about hard work, gimmick or not)
By RANDALL PATTERSON
The real estate evangelist’s wealth-building seminar costs up to $54,000. But no matter. You can put it on your credit cards.

Betting on Star Power
By ANDREW RICE
Mario Procida’s new building has park views, multimillion-dollar apartments and Manhattan’s hottest architect. Just one thing: It’s in Brooklyn.

Quote: Freedom Dilemma

Anxiety is the dizziness of freedom. - Soren Kierkegaard

Article: Iraq Today

Sunni Militants Disrupt Plan to Calm Baghdad - New York Times

Nice capture of the problems in the greater Baghdad right now, Shias fled, Sunnis seize the opportunity. Good chance for the Sadrists (Shias) to say, look at this, when the Shia militias that have been protecting the populations are gone, the population goes unprotected by the U.S. Meanwhile, successful Sunni attacks are good for the terrorist recruiting business.

Blog: Barnett notes civilian shortage in Iraq

DoEE will come when the pain quotient gets high enough (Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog)

Barnett quotes:

ARTICLE: “The Civilian Shortage: Rebuilding Iraq has been hindered by federal agency turf wars and a tight purse,” by Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 5-11 March 2007, p. 9.

Great one that highlights the inability to get the civilian talent needed to make Iraq successful. Potentially steaming form the State Departments lack of interest in reinventing themselves for this (and future) conflict. Tie this back to Bush's choosing Paul Bremer to lead the Coalition Provisional Authority at the close of the ground war (this guy has no Middle East background, and in the Middle East, you have got to know the culture), who managed to make some decisions that a lot of folks wish could never have happened.

Additionally, I met the author around Jan 07, albeit briefly.

Crossfit Workout

Four Times:
5 lateral double jump burpies
10 tire flips
21 knees to elbows
400m run

Time: 27:26, 8min red-line, 19min anaerobic

Article: Iran Iraq Trade

Iran Is Playing a Growing Role in Iraq Economy - New York Times

The Iran Iraq war has been over for awhile, and now it is time to trade. Despite the Bush Administration's opinion of Iran, some accusations perhaps founded, there is money to be made and the two states are going to trade. Saddam is out of the way and there is a market for goods, further, the tribalism of the Shia majority lends well to trading with old Iranian friends.

In my view the trade is great and it enables Iraq to truly begin recovering on its own terms. Foreign Direct Investment, even from Iran is good for Iraq and the globalized world in the long term. Sure, in the short term, along with the Iranian tomatoes and washing machines, there is going to be some weapons and the makings of anti armor improvised explosive devices, but security will closely follow the market, it is just more profitable that way.

Crossfit Workout

15 45lb overhead squat
15 Hanging L-Ups
15 95lb split jerks
15 Knees to Elbows
15 Hanging Clings
15 45lb back extensions

Should have done 3 times

Article: Singapore Needs Sand

Neighbor Leaves Singapore Short of Sand - New York Times

International politics aside, Singapore needs sand and they are going to by it. Granted, Singapore needs to import theirs and most developing countries can supply their own. Worth consider the skyrocketing demands of steel and sand. Such commodities, like energy, are such that the market is going to increase their price. Hard to find the consumer monopoly, but worth investigating forging infrastructure/cement companies that are supplying sand to Singapore, Shanghai, etc. Figure Dubai is doing OK on sand.

Article: Ignatius OPED, Abizaid Retires

David Ignatius - Abizaid's Long View - washingtonpost.com

Nice review of Abizaid's legacy as he finished his years of service at U.S. Central Command (supervises forces in Iraq and Afghanistan). He spoke the language and understood the culture and has highlighted how troop numbers have little to do with the strategic or operational implications of the fighting in Iraq. Rather, lots of time and gradual Iraqi initiative will reestablish the struggling country.

Article: Fast French Train

BBC NEWS Europe France to open fastest rail link

200 mph from Paris to Strasbourg is fast. Still questions of profit potential, but still, 200 mph is fast.

Blog: Cheap Generic Drugs

Freakonomics Blog » If Crack Dealers Took Lessons From Walgreens, They Really Would Be Rich

Amazing price difference of more than $100 for a bottle of generic drugs at Walgreen's vs. Sam's Club. Tie this back to the principals in Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes, you go to Walgreen's because you always go to Walgreen's. Also worth considering that even after you have shopped around for your expendables it is worth shopping around again.

Freakonomics is a book that has a blog with an continuation of its lessons.

Workout

Max Heart Rate Run - MHR 178, seems low

3 Times
20 Push Ups
10 Dips
10 Pull Ups (Lat Pull Downs)

3 Times
5 95lb Thrusters

Article: Brooks OPED, Political Stand Still

The Long Exit - New York Times

New Article, same subject:
Iraqis’ Progress Lags Behind Pace Set by Bush Plan - New York Times

Good one that highlights the political challenge that the GOP has struggled with for the last year or so: to withdraw or not. The Dems, now with the congressional power, realize that, like the Bush Strategy or not, it can be executed, and it is awfully hard to offer an alternative. Bush has no problem being unpopular and at least it is a policy of getting things done.

In my mind, the U.S. wants the Iraqis to achieve U.S. Goals on an U.S. time line to improve the security and economic situation in Iraq. I doubt any amount of U.S. pressure will be able to achieve that. If I was an Iraqi I would be doing whatever I could to milk a few more dollars out of the U.S., nodding a lot, and playing along, patiently waiting, in the Iraqi way, for the U.S. to allow Iraq to be Iraq, jaded as the U.S. might find it.

In full:
The Long Exit - New York Times
March 15, 2007
Op-Ed Columnist
The Long Exit
By DAVID BROOKS
Senator Carl Levin has always been one of the most serious participants in the Iraq debate. He’s one of those politicians who could actually pass a test of Middle East cultural literacy — who could tell you what the Mahdi Army is or whether Al Qaeda is a Sunni or Shiite organization. He’s one of the Democrats who generally hasn’t formed his Iraq position with an eye to Iowa primary voters or the party’s donor base.

Which is why it’s significant that his speeches during yesterday’s Senate war debate were so utterly unconvincing.

The essential Levin argument was that the Iraqi leaders have been shirking their duties and it’s time to force them to get serious. “It is time for Congress to explain to the Iraqis that it is your country,” Levin declared. It is time to shift responsibility for Iraq firmly onto Iraqi shoulders, and give them the incentives they need to make the tough choices. The Democratic timetable resolution, Levin concluded, “will deliver a cold dose of reality to Iraqi leaders.”

But does anybody think that Iraqi leaders, many of whom have seen their brothers and children gunned down, need a cold dose of reality delivered from the U.S. Congress? Does anybody buy the Levin model of reality, which holds that Iraqi leaders are rational game theorists who just need to have their incentives rearranged in order to make peace? Does anybody believe the rifts in Iraqi society can be bridged by a few “tough choices” made by the largely reviled Green Zone politicians?

The Democrats spent three years attacking the Bush administration for ignoring intelligence, but now they’re making the Republicans look like pikers. In this debate, they have rigorously ignored the latest intelligence estimates, which take a much deeper, more organic view of Iraqi reality than the technocratic, top-down approach Levin was articulating Wednesday afternoon.
The intelligence agencies paint a portrait of a society riven at its base with sectarian passion. They describe a society not of rational game theorists but of human beings beset by trauma — of Sunnis failing to acknowledge their minority status, of Shiites bent on winner-take-all domination, of self-perpetuating animosities, disintegrating bonds and a complex weave of conflicts.

The intelligence agencies see chaos if the U.S. withdraws. Carl Levin, based on phantom intelligence, sees newly incentivized Iraqis returning to reason and moderation.

The fact is there are two serious approaches to U.S. policy in Iraq, and the Democratic leaders, for purely political reasons, are caught in the middle, and even people like Carl Levin are beginning to sound silly.

One serious position is heard on the left: that there’s nothing more we can effectively do in Iraq. We’ve spent four years there and have not been able to quell the violence. If the place is headed for civil war, there’s nothing we can do to stop it, and we certainly don’t want to get caught in the middle. The only reasonable option is to get out now before more Americans die.

The second serious option is heard on the right. We have to do everything we can to head off catastrophe, and it’s too soon to give up hope. The surge is already producing some results. Bombing deaths are down by at least a third. Execution-style slayings have been cut in half. An oil agreement has been reached, tribes in Anbar Province are chasing Al Qaeda, cross-sectarian political blocs are emerging. We should perhaps build on the promise of the surge with regional diplomacy or a soft partition, but we certainly should not set timetables for withdrawal.
The Democratic leaders don’t want to be for immediate withdrawal because it might alienate the centrists, and they don’t want to see out the surge because that would alienate the base. What they want to do is be against Bush without accepting responsibility for any real policy, so they have concocted a vaporous policy of distant withdrawal that is divorced from realities on the ground.

Say what you will about President Bush, when he thinks a policy is right, like the surge, he supports it, even if it’s going to be unpopular. The Democratic leaders, accustomed to the irresponsibility of opposition, show no such guts.

As a result, nobody loves them. Liberals recognize the cynicism of it all. Republicans know the difference between principled opposition and unprincipled posturing. Independents see just another group of politicians behaving like politicians.

What we get is foreign policy narcissism. The Democrats call it an Iraq policy, but it’s really all about us.

Recipes: Esquire Pork Shoulder

Mario Batali's Pork Shoulder alla Porchetta - Esquire.com:
(also http://www.esquire.com/features/foodformen for more)

Mario Batali's Pork Shoulder alla Porchetta
4 pounds boneless pork shoulder
Salt and pepper
1/4 cup extra virgin olive oil
1 medium
onion, thinly sliced
1 bulb fennel, fronds chopped and reserved, bulb thinly sliced
2 pounds ground pork shoulder (you can use already-made sausages if
need be)
2 tablespoons fennel seeds
2 tablespoons freshly ground black pepper
2 tablespoons chopped fresh rosemary
6 cloves garlic, thinly sliced
2 eggs, beaten
4 red onions, halved

Preheat oven to 350 degrees F. Have your butcher butterfly pork shoulder to an even 1 inch
thickness, you should have a flat piece of meat about 8 inches by 14 inches. Sprinkle with salt and pepper and set aside. In a saute pan, heat olive oil until smoking. Add the onion and fennel bulb and saute until softened and lightly browned, about 10 minutes. Add ground pork, fennel seeds, pepper, rosemary and garlic and cook until the mixture assumes a light color, stirring constantly, about 10 minutes. Allow to cool. Add chopped fennel leaves and eggs and mix well.

Spread the mixture over pork loin and roll up like a jelly roll. Tie with butchers twine and place in roast pan on top of halved red onions. Place in oven and roast for 2 1/2 hours, until the internal temperature reaches 160 degrees F. Remove and allow to rest for 10 to 20 minutes. Slice into 1 inch thick pieces and serve.

Crossfit WOD

Five Times:
50 ft Walking Lunge w/ 45 lb bar overhead
20 Burpies

Article: Chinese Buffetesque Stocks

It's a Chinese Buffet, Pal [Fool.com] March 13, 2007

Great bunch of foreign stocks to run here:
NetEase.com, Inc. (ADR)
The9 Limited (ADR)
Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd (ADR)
Ctrip.com International, Ltd (ADR)
eLong, Inc. (ADR)
Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR)

First three are game makers that will clearly out live Chinese government attempts to curb youth interest in online gaming/interneting. These guys are growing equity and earnings fast.

Ctrip might look to buy cheap faltering eLong and Focus Media, an advertiser looking to grow as well.

It will be worth the time to take a long look at the financials of all these and very nice that they are easy to research and buy trades as an ADR on the NASDAQ. Are they priced low enough? All relatively new, but isn't China's economy as well?

Article: Crisis Looms in Market for Mortgages

Crisis Looms in Market for Mortgages - New York Times

The mortgage securities market accounts for $6.5 trillion, more than the Treasuries market. Credit derivatives and the sale of debt is complex and under regulated. With more and more focus now on the sub prime credit market it is going to be exciting, though hopefully not disastrous, to watch. A down turn in home prices would reduce the liquidity in the market and surly default rates would rise.

Hard to wrap your arms around the context that the mortgage/credit derivatives market operates with respect to everything else, but to me it seems like the foundation of our economy, how both individuals and business buy and sell REAL estate, and the leverage other peoples money to innovate in business.

As the Congress tackles this, with more regulatory oversight, the article suggests the sector is going to get something akin to Sarbanes-Oxley. The sub prime market is interesting, and unrecognizable, a mortgage broker makes a simple matter of a "stated income" or "no-doc" loan, that is, you tell the bank how much you made instead of having to prove it. The industry apparently calls these "liar loans," but it makes sense if you are a bank and you have got money to loan, and you can let a little white lie slide in exchange for a higher interest rate.

The article further discusses how the prices of the credit derivatives are set, that is, how does one company sell debt (financed money) to another company. Essentially, the lender can upgrade of downgrade that debt, and nothing is marked to book until the debt settles of a up/downgrade occurs, so how quick will folks (banks, lenders, related service companies) be to "admit" by way of grading, the value of the product/note/derivative/etc.? And that is where the regulation comes in.

Big ideas, but I see the personal take away being a slowing sellers market, thereby a better place for buyers (having to finance more traditionally, e.g. less or much more expensive interest only, 20% down, etc.), and things are good for landlords taking in folks who want to live in a place they cant afford to buy. You can't help but assume home prices will flatten for awhile as the market adjusts to more conservative opportunities in real estate. Worth a continued watch of mortgage and credit based news, and more education it how such products are bought, sold and settled.

Article: AT&T wants to mimic Apple

AT&T Megastore Aims to Make It Fun to Buy a Phone - New York Times

I struggled with this one for a minute, something didn't seem right. Apple is new and trendy, you might argue the same about Cingular, but AT&T? AT&T is an old company and I think it will be seen that way. If they can capitalize on the "trendiness" that Apple managed, perhaps they can pull it off, and the stores in general have got to be a tiny part of the AT&T business.

Either way, I don't think it will ever be fun to by a phone, with all the paperwork and waiting around.

Workout

Warmup (Bench, Pull Down, Squat)

Run w/ Hill (15 min)

3 times:
8 95lb Hanging Power Clings
8 Swiss Ball PU’s

Article: Halliburton CEO to Dubai

Halliburton Moving C.E.O. From Houston to Dubai - New York Times

Another example of Dubai becoming a major business hub. Convenient for a company that does a lot of its business there and a way to show the Arab world that yeah, we recognize you as a economic powerhouse and we are ready to do business. Further, Dubai's model as a moderate, modern, Arab city works, and works we'll.

Magazine: Kips and Smartmoney Stocks

Highlights From Feb 07 Kiplinger’s, 10 Stocks for 07:
Atrion Corporation
EMCOR Group, Inc.
SkyWest, Inc.
Universal Forest Products, Inc.

Mar 07 Smartmoney’s
Emerging Market Infrastructure:
Cemex S.A. B de C.V. (ADR)

Re-insurers:
RenaissanceRe Holdings
Willis Group Holdings Limited
XL Capital Ltd.

The Kips' stocks check out pretty good from both an earnings and equity standpoint, and you have got to like the small market cap of Atrion (though it is expensive just now). Of the 4 (and all the rest really) SkyWest has the best earnings and equity growth, but, invest in a regional Airline? Hard to do. The Mexian Cemeant "Cemex" is a bit unpredictable, but cement is good right now, a hard bet for the long term though. And finally, great equity growth for the re-insurers, sporadic earnings, which is likely tied to mother natures vote each year, some some other nuance of insurance that might be worth exploration.

I'll add Atrion, SkyWest, and RenaissanceRe Holdings (the smallest of the re's) to the watch list.

Crossfit Workout

Five times:
30 10lb Wall Balls
30 Situps
400m Run

Article: Who pays for Identity Theft

Identity Theft - Identity Crisis - Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt - New York Times

The merchants of course, you call the card company, have them "chargeback" the unauthorized transactions and stick it to the merchant who allowed the fraud. Forces the industry to police its self while law enforcement agencies are otherwise strapped.

This article is by the guys who wrote "Freakonomics" and they blog at http://www.freakonomics.com/. They do a fine job of drilling down to motivations behind things. How do you prevent identify theft? There is profit in the solution, but standardization is the key. It will be interesting to see if it is driven by industry or government.

Men's Health Workout

3 sets of each group's exercises, alternating, rest 1 min between each
group:

Group 1:
6 DB Chest Press
6 DB Row

Group 2:
8 DB Incline Press
12 Wide Grip Deadlift

Group 3:
12 Bench Press
45sec Swiss Ball Plank

Atricle: Utah’s Epic Ride

Utah’s Epic Ride - New York Times

It sells like this:

A daylong guided trip, the Interconnect Tour follows a circuitous route of in-bounds ski trails and steep backcountry runs. Chairlift rides are combined with out-of-bounds traverses, or skiing across slopes, to connect the resorts that sprawl through this part of the Wasatch Range. In a single day, Interconnect skiers travel about 25 miles through the mountains, carving more than 15,000 vertical feet of turns on the slopes and adjacent backcountry at Deer Valley, Park City Mountain Resort, Brighton Resort, Solitude Mountain Resort, Alta Ski Area and Snowbird Ski and Summer Resort.

Stick that on the list of things to do when it comes to ski travel. Hard to do without a guide or without some serious time to dedicate to mapping it out your self.

Article: Google Perks

After Mastering Web Traffic, Google Runs Bus Line - New York Times

Article discusses a bus line that Google runs for its employees dynamically changing and expanding to meet demands of new passengers and respond to traffic patterns. Drive your google to the google to get some google right? The idea of commuting via bus to work with WiFi makes a lot of sense. I spend the first hour of my day sorting though email, so who cares if I'm on a bus doing it. Makes the generally suburban based technology companies more appealing to those desiring to dwell in the city.

And Google online. It is amazing how it all nests so well, a single google account, simply and seamlessly expanding and developing tool sets. Beats out the "rest" (Yahoo, etc.) by developing feature rich integrated applications, offering them for free. You're email ports to the blog, and the blog ports to email which can all port to the cell phone, the maps, the chat, the earth, if you spend a bit of time figuring it all out the seamlessness is unmatched.

Crossfit Workout

1.5 mi run

Five Times:
10 Wall Balls
10 Dips
10 sec Hand Stand

www.crossfit.com

Article: NYT, Farm Real Estate

Has Real Estate Lost Its Sizzle? Not on the Farm - New York Times

Interesting as I read the Omnivore's Dilemma to hear about increasing value of farm real estate and the rising prices of corn. Will this be a boon for farmers in the long term? Likely not simply because the farmers are not in a position to control the price of their product, rather, more yield, more money, lower price, back to the farm subsidized status quo.

From an investment perspective though, interesting to consider, article mentions an Ag Real Estate Fund: Commodity RealReturn Strategy , pretty poor performance, but interesting concept. As the article says though, the boon is best for folks with money to turn from real estate profiles, tax deferral, and then into a farm real estate investment. Who to manage that transaction though.

Article: Ignatius OPED, Treasury Sanctions Powerful

David Ignatius - U.S. Sanctions With Teeth - washingtonpost.com

Summary: The U.S. Treasury can declare a bank a bad actor and cut them off from the American banking system. The international system has to respond with its own controls because when the U.S. cuts you off the folks around you can't do business with you, lest they become cut off them selves. A powerful way for the U.S. to send a message.

Great example of how globalization and economics can reduce manipulate systems uses by bad actors and how money is better than terror.

Book: Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes

Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes
Gary Belsky and Thomas Gilovich

The book proceeds by discussing several realties of behavioral economics, like why a tax return feels like a windfall payment. Why the value of money is less when more is on the line, like $5 more for a car vs. a CD. The intent is to assist the reader in stepping away from such faults and make smarter decisions. The book goes on to make a series of suggestions to improve ones personal financial situation.

The Ego trap reminds us that we are not as smart as we think we are and we need to be mindful of that. We remember past success better than past failures. It is important that we learn detailed lessons from past failures. We can temper optimism with prior experience, but in general, we don’t learn well enough from our past mistakes.

A good rule for adjusting for over confidence is by taking 25% of the high estimate and adding 25% to the down estimate. Like, think you could make $1000, thing again to $750, think you could only loose $1000, think losing $1250.

Principals to Ponder:
Every dollar spends the same
Losses hurt you more than gains please you
Money that’s spent is money that doesn’t matter
It’s all in the way you look at it
All numbers count, even if you don’t like to count them
You probably pay too much attention to things that matter too little
Your confidence is often misplaced
It’s hard to admit mistakes
The trend may not be your friend
You can know too much

Steps to take:
Raise you insurance deductible
Self insure against small losses
Pay off credit card debt with emergency funds
Switch to index funds
Diversify your investments
Review your assets
Max out on retirement plans
Set up a payroll deduction plan
Keep Track (of how you spend money and where it is)

Crossfit Workout

800m
20x30lb One Arm Dumbell Snatch, alternating, each arm
20x30lb Dumbell Hang Squat Cling
100 Situps
20x30lb Dumbell Hang Squat Cling
20x30lb One Arm Dumbell Snatch, alternating, each arm
800m

Time: 35:00

Cardio, Gym, Muscle

IRS Publications

I was interested in buying a book about real estate tax, etc, and realized that the best tax reading you can do is at www.irs.gov. The following are worth while:

Publication 523 - Selling Your Home
Publication 527 - Residential Rental Property
Publication 530 - Tax Info for First Time Buyers
Publication 544 - Sales and Disposition of Assets
Publication 583 - Small Business Record Keeping
Publication 936 - Home Mortgage Interest Deduction
Publication 946 - How to Depreciate Property

Spend an afternoon reading these and you'll have a great introduction to how the IRS's taxes, and with a little thought the nuance of the tax breaks are pretty obvious, especially with the little examples that the IRS provides in the pubs.