Article: America the Strong

Follow the Fundamentals - New York Times:

Brooks spends some time reminding us that the American economy is stronger and more resolute than we might want to give it credit for.

" But as the Chinese will be the first to tell you, their dazzling prosperity is built on fragile foundations. In the United States, the situation is the reverse. We have obvious problems. But the foundations of American prosperity are strong. The U.S. still has much more to gain than to lose from openness, trade and globalization."

Article: Wine and Music

NPR : Music Alters Wine's Taste, Vintner Insists

Who would have thought you ought pair your wine with your music. Interesting.

Article: The Dollar's Ways Well Explained

David Ignatius - The Discipline Of the Dollar - washingtonpost.com

Ignatius does a fantastic job of explaining what is going on with the dollar, why it is so week, and what Adam Smith might forecast.... and Jim Cramer as well.

Article: Wish We Coulda

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda - New York Times

Excellent Friedman today... excellent. Too bad we just can't think that big. Worth the read.

Official Google Blog: Where's my Gphone?

Official Google Blog: Where's my Gphone?

After a lot of speculation Google explains what all these Gphone rumors have really be about, the software that makes your mobile go. As they suggest, it is certainly bigger than just a phone (though don't tell Apple cause it seems as though the iPhone is working out for them). But, if Google can create a platform for your mobile, and then, more importantly, the CARRIERS are willing to allow it, this will be big.

Clearly the US cell phone market needs some reform. Everything is so proprietary and mine, mine, mine. The better way is seen on the web, sure, Qwest, Comcast, however you get to the web, but once your are there you can do what you like, install what you like and expand your services as you like. Mobile phones need to get there too.

And on this, the iPhone set the stage. You just go to the store and buy one. No contracts, no 20 minutes with the cell phone store guy asking for this piece of credit history and your last 6 know addresses. You take your iPhone home, plug it in to iTunes (yuck) and it does the rest. The success of this automated process will change the way everyone buys phones.

The success of a open, mobile platform will change the way we use, and think of our phones.

Article: Pay Your Bills

David Ignatius - Life in Budget Limbo - washingtonpost.com

While I have always been amused that congress can never seem to pass the budget on time I've never really fully considered how much that can impact the efficiency of the system. It is disappointing when one takes the time to realize what the government does to itself.

Article: Google Computer

Google PC At Wal-Mart for $200

The Tech Crunch headline sums it up. Think of it as a "Webtop" in that it runs Google Operating System and really only does the web, documents (via Google Docs), maps (via Google Maps), etc. Everything is happening on the web, not the local machine. Sounds strange now, but were ring tones mainstream 5 years ago?

Book: The Shovel Revival

The Shovel Revival, Zephyros Major

While I have never read a book about motorcycle culture I couldn’t help but pick up this 43 page manifesto as the author’s name struck a familiar chord. I found the book would do the same. You see, what is facing the motorcyclist today, be him a true rough rider or the weekend yuppie, is the same dilemma that s facing America and frankly, the globalized world. What is selling out and what is living true, and isn’t it possible that selling out to something could end up as a means of being true to oneself.

The book takes you though the evolution of the motorcycle culture and how it reached its state today. Then, it goes on to discuss what might become of it, and what should best become of it. It is the hope of something even better than what has materialized today, the integration of not just many, but all riders.

Major puts it best as he says “It is a matter of opening the gates, or tallying, re-invigorating and re-inviting the masses, of adopting an attitude of action, and of spreading the good word that the secret to happiness may just lie in challenging yourself to go after it.” And as I type that I can’t help but wonder if that statement isn’t just good for revitalizing and improving motorcycling spirit, but might be ideally applied to America as we remind ourselves, and the rest of the world, that we’re on to something pretty good.

I look forward to the day I’m working quads on the river, rain pouring down, and a few too many beers in sight.

Blog: NYTimes River

NY Times River

Have you seen the NYtimesriver? At the link above you get all the news headlines, as they are published. The site says it was designed with the mobile user in mind but I find it useful on the laptop in a craigslist sort of no nonsense way. Interesting way to take your Times.

Article: Starting from Scratch

On the Legalization or Not of Marijuana - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog

The Freakonomics blog takes on the issue of Marijuana legalization however what I liked best was Dubner's introduction. He calls us to take an issue, "erase" the current system, rule set, etc., and then ponder how you could design whatever it is better.

I like that because too often I think people take a stance on an issue without a solution. That is, we should stop using oil because it is harming the environment. Great, where shall we pile the cars. Don't get me wrong, the debate is good, but the thought that comes before the debate is critical.

Post: One Way Blogs

A VC: The One Way Nature Of Blogs

Great perspective on how blogs can be a one way means of keeping in touch with someone. I had a friend who wrote a great blog and one of the reasons he eventually stopped is because when he would see someone they would already know his stories. I suppose comments are a way to keep "back" in touch, but really, this is just part of the nature of blogging.

Article: Still Doing Well

The Gloomsayers Should Look Up - New York Times
by Ben Stein

Most people enjoy Ben Stein's writing and perspective. He wrote a great one on the front page of the Sunday NYT Business Section today. He does a solid job of simply explaining the whole "subprime" "credit crunch" what ever you like to call it and at the same time point out that our economy is doing pretty ok after all of that. Sure, maybe harder times to come, but we'll be ok.

Article: The Real Iraq We Knew

The Real Iraq We Knew - washingtonpost.com

12 Army Captains call it like that saw it, maybe a bit over dramatic here, but worth the read.

Mansions and Shacks | Redfin Seattle Sweet Digs

Mansions and Shacks Redfin Seattle Sweet Digs

Think the real estate game isn't changing to adopt the concept of an online realtor? Bill Gates posted a sliver of property on Redfin.

Wow.

OPED: The Odyssey

OP-ED COLUMNIST; The Odyssey Years - New York Times

David Brooks wonderfully captures the need of this generation of 20-somethings to GO, someplace, and do something. Worth the read, especially for the Gen X and Y.

Article: Army Offers Big Cash

Army Offers Big Cash To Keep Key Officers - washingtonpost.com:

In the Army there has never been anything like this in memory,' said Col.
PaulAswell, director of officer policy for Army personnel.

The quote tells it as it is, the army simply hasn't done this before. The reasons for this and the likely outcome are worth concern.

Blog: Google Providing Real Time Quotes

Official Google Blog: China in real time

Only the quotes are for Chinese securities. It is disappointing that they still can't offer real time quotes for American securities, the petition is still with the SEC. It is pretty ridiculous that the "man" still wont provide real time data to everyone, I bet that changes for good in the next 5 years.

Article: On the Road

Sal Paradise at 50 - New York Times

David Brooks reviews contemporary thinking on Jack's "On the Road" as it turns 50. Some would tell you it is about Jack's loneliness. I think it is a safe bet to read "On the Road" and tap in to that energy. Let's go Sal.

“Besides, he knew the road would get more interesting, especially ahead, always ahead” – Jack Kerouac, On the Road

Travel and Freakonomics

Arthur Frommer Answers All Your Travel Questions, and Then Some - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog

I haven't been a fan of Freakonomics moving to the NYT Blog roll because the feeds are only partially syndicated so I read the first few lines via Google Reader and then have to go to another page to finish. Few posts make that cut, but this one is good and insightful on tourism from someone who wrote the book.

Book: A Short History of Nearly Everything

A Short History of Nearly Everything, Bill Bryson
9/20/07

If you needed a refresher from middle school earth science and wanted to know what happened since then, Bill Bryson has got you covered; this time with a bit more depth and insight than would be appreciated by a 12 year old. Via his witty style of prose Bryson takes us back to the creation of the universe and brings us right up to how we got to today, and how amazingly lucky the journey was and at the same time how modern science really has no clue at all as to how it all happened or what happens next. There is a great deal of theory though, and a review of it is both astounding and at times discomforting.

The simple outline of the book proceeds though the following topics explaining what we know, who figured it out, how they figured it out, and many times, what’s more to figure out:
The Creation and history of the Universe
The size of the Earth
Atoms and stuff
The forces that make the Earth go
Life
Human history

Throughout the book Bryson does an amazing job of quantifying the unquantifiable. Starting with the creation of the universe and then into the size and nature of the earth. It is safe to say that the universe is bigger that you can understand and older than you can imagine. While I knew there were tons of microbes all over and in me, I didn’t really appreciate that there are more of them on me than cells in me. The book is full of these relational facts. In one case Bryson breaks the history of the earth down to what it would have looked like in one day’s time; humans don’t show up until the last instant of the day. Then the discussion of how we figured out chemistry is shocking, but fairly expected, folks just tried stuff out to see what was what, sometimes it killed them, and sometimes it didn’t. “All life is one” is the theme of DNA. We are 99.9% similar to everyone else and share many traits via DNA with plants and the like. We all come from this lifeless substance that we are all ultimately a slave too.

On the topic of our existence, it is amazing that we, humans, are not the point of it all, as many easily imagine. We’re awfully lucky to be here and we might not stick around forever. Bryson takes us through all the possibilities of how we as humans managed to get here. It seems the only thing that can be agreed upon is that we are awfully lucky to have made it. Throughout the book descriptions of what could have happened along the way are shocking.

Here are some of the ways that we could all go away, tomorrow. An asteroid could hit the planet. Apparently there are several close calls a week, but we can’t see them, the dark roids just sail right by. Think about it, there isn’t a telescope pointed in every direction, we are bound to miss a great deal of this. And if a big one hit, we’re gone. If not an asteroid, a huge volcanic eruption could take us all out. It is well argued that we are overdue for that. It is also well argued that either the asteroid or the volcano did the dinosaurs in, so, safe to say, it could happen. How about a big solar flare frying us with some radiation, certainly a possibility? And then on a small scale, a bacteria or virus could quite easily bring us to our knees, if you think about it, and what you recall about various plagues over history, we might be overdue there too.

What drives science today is thought provoking: we know so much, but at the same time, know so little. Where do you start? Where do you get the money? Do drug companies want to fight life long illness where you have to take a pill a day for life, or flu where you take a pill for a couple of weeks? How do you standardize everything? How can you look at all parts of the sky? How do you catch up, all the mosses are still in paper record, not electronic (mosses while trivial are used as an example that could be applied to a great many things that need categorizing)? Now that we have mapped a human genome, what can we do with it? Science, in my mind, expands as fast as we can figure a small part of it out. Indeed, there is so much to figure out, let’s hope another ice age or asteroid doesn’t ruin the search.

Follow Up: "The War as We Saw It"

I wrote about an op-ed written by some soldiers in Iraq here titled "The War as We Saw It." The NYT had a follow up article:

2 G.I.’s, Skeptical but Loyal, Die in a Truck Crash in Iraq - New York Times

Two of the soldiers who wrote of their pessimism about the war in an Op-Ed article that appeared in The New York Times on Aug. 19 were killed in Baghdad on Monday. They were not killed in combat, nor on a daring mission.

They died when the five-ton cargo truck in which they were riding overturned.The victims, Staff Sgt. Yance T. Gray, 26, and Sgt. Omar Mora, 28, were among the authors of “The War as We Saw It,” in which they expressed doubts about reports of progress.

Article: China isn't focused on Iraq

Iraq Through China’s Lens - New York Times

Today's Friedman piece covers China's growth and notes that they are largely able to focus inward as they are not hugely involved in the shaping of global politics... yet. In the end, his point is how Iraq is "distracting" the U.S. from some self improvement. Worth consideration.

From the piece:
The president of Dalian University of Technology, Jinping Ou, told me his new focus now is on energy research and that he has 100 doctoral students dealing with different energy problems — where five years ago he barely had any — and that the Chinese government has just decided to open its national energy innovation research center here.

Listening to him, my mind drifted back to Iraq, where I was two weeks ago and where I heard a U.S. officer in Baghdad tell this story:

His unit was on a patrol in a Sunni neighborhood when it got hit by an I.E.D. Fortunately, the bomb exploded too soon and no one was hurt. His men jumped out and followed the detonation wire, which led 1,500 feet into the neighborhood. A U.S. Black Hawk helicopter was in the area and alerted the U.S. soldiers that a man was fleeing the scene on a bicycle. The soldiers asked the Black Hawk for help, and it swooped down and used its rotor blades to blow the insurgent off his bicycle, with a giant “whoosh,” and the U.S. soldiers captured him.

That image of a $6 million high-tech U.S. helicopter with a highly trained pilot blowing an insurgent off his bicycle captures the absurdity of our situation in Iraq. The great Lebanese historian Kamal Salibi said it best: “Great powers should never get involved in the politics of small tribes.”

That is where we are in Iraq. We’re wasting our brains. We’re wasting our people. We’re wasting our future. China is not.

Blogs

I've moved the workout posts to another blog because I wanted a whole set of tags dedicated to workout performance. While I have been recording workouts and have a fancy watch that spits out a myriad of data I found I wasn't really capturing progress very well. So, new blog for such things:
http://noltpasfitness.blogspot.com/

Slide Show: Working on a Cruise Ship

The New York Times > Key Magazine > Slide Show > Water World

Fun slide show that gives you a taste of working on a cruise ship. Interesting life.

Articles: Iraq Assessment

As we prepare to hear reports from General Petraus and Ambassador Crocker this week the NYT has done some of its own reporting. These interactive NYT pages show the progress made, or not, in Baghdad over the last few years and are excellently assembled. The majority of the troop surge was focused on Baghdad and how things changed in the capital city are worth long consideration. From reading though the various stories from the different neighborhoods in Baghdad it seems to me that while the city as a whole is better off, but the surge had little to do with it. Frankly, the squashing of the sunni resistance throughout the city went on last summer, so the Shia's lived out a decent year.

Then a long one that reports on the "view from the ground." Worth considering. What more can the U.S. do for Iraq? Perhaps we'll hear tomorrow.

Blog: Loans

If you're really really interested in how home loans work, are originated, sold on the secondary market, etc., there is a great post here.

Consequently, looks like mortgage rates, for folks with decent credit, are falling back down to reasonable levels. Quite the summer spike up around 6.75% and now back down to 6.00%, but yeah, don't even think about ARM's, they are priced not to sell with rates the same as the fixed.

Article: Bremer Says it Wasn't His Fault

How I Didn’t Dismantle Iraq’s Army - New York Times

Contribution from Paul Bremer in the Times today and he explains how he didn't just make the call to dismantle the Iraqi Army, rather, it was a consensus that it ought to be done. Easy to look back and criticize his actions, but my issue with Bremer all along has been that he had no Middle Eastern experience, heck, they guy didn't speak Arabic. Given his background in European affairs, he probably did his best, but a bit too much finger pointing in this piece, but worth noting.

Article: U.S. Partner's with Militia Groups

Iraq - Insurgency - Sunni Muslims - United States Military - Terrorism - Counterinsurgency - New York Times

Taking the time to understand this article will allow you to peer into the near term future of Iraq. Regardless of what Bush or Petraus say this month, the U.S. Army is partnering and operating with Sunni Militia groups. Right or wrong, it is innovative and new for American policy in Iraq and it is showing signs of progress. Only time will tell what price will be payed, indeed this action could work to well solidify the fracturing country, but none the same, it is happening and the next year will be full of the results of these partnerships.

Book: The End of Medicine

The End of Medicine, Andy Kessler
9/3/07

Kessler, of Wall Street Meat and Running Money, puts technology to the side for a bit and takes a long look at how medicine might scale. And by scale, he implies, getting cheaper and therefore selling more. It is a fascinating question; think about the money that is spent on health care in the US alone: 1.8 trillion dollars, 15% of American GDP. That is a whole chunk of our economy. That is $5,400 for every American, the highest in the world. The book sights the Swiss paying $3,300, and $2,700 in Canada. The paradoxes are plentiful, however.

The book is a journey though these paradoxes and ultimately results in showing that one day, preventative scanning/detection will revolutionize medicine and end the way we currently think about medicine. The problems are many. False positives in testing result in more tests and treatments, a whole lot of heart ache, that are all unnecessary. False negatives are recipes for litigation. And if you are the one paying the bill, and it is likely that you aren’t, because you have insurance, and it is determined you do have a condition that means we have to fix you, and that costs money. To run the best tests medicine has to offer right now on the entire population is shown to be cost prohibitive, at least for now. And that is what will change.

So be on the lookout for imaging solutions, or other types of preventative detection that will scale, it is coming and it isn’t driven by passion for money, it is driven by the passion of survivors and memories of those who didn’t.

Eating in Alexandria, VA

A Town Takes Its Place at the Culinary Table - New York Times

Bunch of new-ish restaurants in Alexandria, VA as Old Town has become a bit of a foodie venue.

Articles: Subprime, Credit Crunch, etc.

So many developments, so fast, and so much more data needed, but today presents the first few articles that takes stock of everything going on.


First Ignatius of the WaPo does a nice job summarizing the subprime situation and throwing a bit of caution out there.


Then some through analysis from the Economist Magazine that paints probabilities of the road ahead. 60% chance this can be contained by monetary policy, 30% chance recession, 10% drastic global recession.

And finally the NYT takes it local looking at the subprime and housing bubble impact on home owners. Long one, I just skimmed it, but got the gist, house don't sell, price going down, ARM resets, can't move, can't sell.

Book: Blueprint For Action

Pretty long book review here, but some HUGE ideas. I think the Heroes and Headlines that are discussed at the end are worth a few minutes of contemplation if your interesting in really thinking about where the world will be 20 years or so down the road.



Blueprint for Action, Thomas Barnett
8/29/07

Finishing this book makes me eager to watch the future unfold and simultaneously makes me wonder why it took me so long to get through the volume. I purchased this book more than a year and a half ago and have been reading it on and off since. If Thomas Friedman is thinking 5-10 years out, Barnett is 10-40 years out and his vision is unmatched by anything I have read. Indeed his blueprint for action clearly leads to a future worth creating.

In his first book, The Pentagon’s New Map, Barnett introduced a lexicon to discuss the current security and globalization situation. There is the Core, the connected states, and the Gap, the areas of the world that is plagued by violence and dictatorship. There are subdivisions, the New Core consisting of China and India, etc. and the Old Core, the U.S., Europe, etc. The seam states are those that are positioned to come one way or the next and allow the Core to access the Gap, i.e. Turkey. Barnett’s offering to establish a system to bring the Gap into the New Core revolves around a Leviathan force in the U.S. Military, able to win wars, and then a System Administration force to win the peace. (Where we lack the numbers in Iraq the Sys Admin coalition would step in)

This book sets out to find a realizable solution, though not immediately executable, clearly his solution is offered as an optimistic alternative to the many doomsayers. He premise is simple, connect the gap and it goes away.

What makes this book so challenging is not that it isn’t written in an easy to understand manner, and it isn’t dry either, it is simply overwhelming. It is hard to think about the reality of how these huge ideas can be applied the world over. So much subtlety yields so much possibility. Simple premises that Barnett injects are so true, yet so hard to comprehend. For example, one of Barnett’s premises is that so many futurists speak doom of the future upon the assumption that humans will not alter than ways or innovate around future problems. He explains that we didn’t leave the Stone Age because we ran out of stones just as we won’t leave the oil age because we ran out of oil; rather, we found a better alternative. The same will be true for oil. Not cause to stop the worry or concern, just a dose of reality.

One of the stunning realities is as the New Core grows; they will dictate rule sets and innovations to the rest of the world. It makes sense. Who needs alternative energy more, the U.S. or China? With China’s growth rate and pollution problems compounded by less per capita discretionary budget results in China needing alternative energy while the U.S. would just like alternative energy. Innovate they will.

As Barnett concludes his blueprint he suggests future heroes we should be looking for and then goes on to suggest one of the greatest ways to see the future is to write the headlines a few years down the road. He takes his own advice.

From the Conclusion (elaborated upon in the text, but headings only provide a summary):
Heroes to Look For:
In Military Affairs:
The four star military police general
Japan’s first combat causality since World War II
Americas first SysAdmin force civilian held captive by the enemy
The “father of Post conflict stabilization and reconstruction operations”
The first SysAdmin soldier to win the Congressional Medal of Honor
The inventor of the Peacemaker (a non lethal weapon with the impact of the Colt 45)
The Sectary of Everything Else (the new Peace Department)

In the National Security Establishment:
The feminist neo-con (spreading feminism throughout the gap)
The reeducation president (education for adults)
The Last Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security)
The first Hispanic major-party nominee for president
The first governor of the fifty-first state of the union
The firs “Chinese daughter” to run for major political office
The Echo Boomers “George Kennan” (Kennan the famous grand strategist, the Echo generation is the result of the baby boomers and as mentioned by Barnett, his key audience (born 1980-1995)

In the politics throughout the Core:
The EU’s: Woodrow Wilson (The Good Cop to the U.S. Bad Cop, keeps balance and builds consensus)
The first Brazilian chair of the G-20 summit
Russia’s Bill Clinton (builds the economy)
The Martin Luther King of Islamic Europe
The “Serpico” who blows the lid of human rights abuses in the global war on terrorism (Serpico investigated NYC police corruption)
The first Russian Secretary General of NATO
The first Old Core company to pay reparation to Gap victims (i.e. Germany after WWII)

In China:
China’s JFK (To the world, ask what China can do for you)
China’s Erin Brockovich (Clean up the pollution)
The first Chinese General Sectary of the North Pacific Treaty Organization
China’s Billy Graham
The first Chinese commander of a joint Sino-American SysAdmin operation

In India:
India’s Margaret Thatcher
India’s Bill Gates
India’s first Oscar-winning Best Picture producer

In the Islamic Middle East
Wired Magazines blogger of the year
The first Arab political leader who leaves office when his legal term ends
The Eminem of Muslim rap
The first Islamic religious leader to win the Nobel Prize
Iran’s John Marshall
Last peacekeeper killed along the Israel-Palestine security fence
The first female leader of an Arab state

In Africa:
The first VJay of MTV Africa
The first African Pope (we’ll there has been three before, but 1500 years ago)
The great African-American political spokesman for African security issues
The first African “Big Man” to surrender power on an ICC plea bargain
The first U.S. military commander of African Command (wait, this has been done since the book printed)
The African Union’s peacekeeping troops win a Nobel Peace Prize

Then, on to the headlines:
2010:
Nixon Goes to Tehran: Grad Bargain in the Works between US and Iran
Doha Round Agreement Hailed as Historic Breakthrough for Struggling Economies
Kim Steps Down After Joint US-China Ultimatum; Korean Reunification Near
Super Flu Overwhelmed Most Nations Medical Systems; Half of Deaths Preventable
Iran-Israel Agreement on Nukes Triggers Tehran’s Recognition of Jewish State
National Security Act Establishes Department of Overseas Contingency Response
Iraqi President Lifts Emergency Decree, Immediately Relinquishes Military Post
China-ASEAN Pact Accelerates Agenda for Asian Free-Trade Area; Japan Korea Next
Synchronized Attacks Drive G-30 to create World Counterterrorism Organization
China’s Demand for Resources Provided Economic Liftoff for Southern Africa
Nuclear Detonation in Northwest Pakistan Described as Terrorist ‘Mistake’
China’s ‘Black Summer’ Triggers Unprecedented Social Unrest; Tipping Point Seen
Putin’s Handpicked Successor Bows to Massive Protest, Accepts Election Defeat
Asia, EU Propel Negotiations for South American Free Trade Zone
Turkey Surprisingly Rapid Entry into EU Signals Europe’s Tilt Toward Arab World

2015
Response to Adana Earthquake Proves Utility of Multination Contingency Force
Taiwan Vote Clears Way for Political ‘Road Map’ Treaty with Mainland China
Russia Begins Formal Membership Talks with EU; Energy Ties Result in ‘Fast Track’
Caspian Coordination Group Finalized Long Term Pipeline Grid Construction Plan
US Led Multination Force Invades Northern Colombia; Bogota in Flames
Kyoto II Accord Goes into Effect When Indian Parliament Approves Pact
Thanks to NATO Effort, AU Peacemaking Force Proves its Mettle in Central Africa
Brasilia Harmonization Talks Yield Draft Treaty for Free Trade Area of the Americas
Korea’s ‘Four Powers’ Served as Embryo for Pacific Rim Treaty Organization

2020
Spread of Religion Across China Alters Policies, Style of Sixth-Generation Leadership
Islamic Opposition Parties Succeed in Loosening EU Restrictions on Immigration
Persian Gulf Security Alliance Cements Role of India and Iran as Regional Pillars
EU Pact with North Africa and Mideast States Completes Goal of Mediterranean Zone
Hispanic Voters Emerge as Key Swing Vote in US National Elections
National Elections Complete Transition of Saudi Monarchy to Constitutional States
Online Game Triggers Dictator’s Departure; Stunning Victory of ‘People’s Diplomacy’

2025
Final Section of Wall Dismantled as Peacekeepers Depart Palestine-Israel Border
Previously String Islamic Terror Network in Africa Now Described as Neutralized
In Historic Shift, Growing Hydrogen Economy Leads to Peaking of Global Oil Demand
Cuba’s ‘Statehood Movement’ Grows Island Vote to Become 53rd State Seems Likely
Lunar Base Global Consortium Plans First Roundtrip of Space Elevator This Year

Article: Tribes and Soldiers in Baquba

Watch the Sunni Tribes - New York Times

Friedman notes the success the U.S. Army (and perhaps Iraq) has seen in Baquba where foreign fighters had allegedly taken over and the Sinni Tribes banded together and with U.S. Forces to essentially kick the bad actors out. This is new policy and innovative, but Friedman points out the realities. This entire situation of the U.S. partnering with tribes vs. the government could quickly turn. However, it is a chance, and new idea, and it might just work. Time will tell.

In Full:
August 29, 2007
Op-Ed Columnist
Watch the Sunni Tribes
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Baquba, Iraq

When U.S. Army officers try to explain the challenge of rebuilding Iraq, they often talk about the three different time pieces they’re working with: Washington’s is a stop watch, where every second longer we stay in Iraq is a problem; the Iraqi Shiite-led government’s watch often seems broken, and you have to regularly tap it to get it to work; and the Iraqi Sunni watch always wants to go in reverse — back to Saddam’s day, when Sunnis were in charge.

I’ve just bounced between Baquba and Balad and a Sunni and Shiite neighborhood in Baghdad as an embedded reporter with the visiting Adm. William Fallon, head of the Central Command. I don’t know whether the surge is working — too early, too short a visit. But I did see something new here, which, if played right, could help to stabilize Iraq and better synchronize some of those watches.

It’s this: the willingness of the Sunni tribes, and key Sunni neighborhood leaders in Baghdad, to work side by side with the American soldiers they’ve been shooting at for four years in order to retake Sunni towns and districts from the Taliban-like, pro-Al Qaeda Iraqi Sunnis who took charge in 2006, when the undermanned United States forces pulled out of many areas and handed over security to unprepared Iraqi Army units.

Ironically, a key reason violence appears to be trending lower here is because Al Qaeda’s “surge” in 2006 so frightened Iraq’s more moderate, occasionally whisky-drinking Sunni tribal leaders — the backbone of the Sunni community here — that they became willing to work with the Americans just when the U.S. surge was taking off.

Warning! This important shift by the Sunni tribes could come unglued if the Shiite-led Iraqi government doesn’t start providing government services — water, fuel and electricity — to the Sunni areas the tribes have retaken.

It could also come apart because, well, this is Iraq. As one U.S. general said to me of the Sunni tribes, “They still hate us. They just hate Al Qaeda even more right now and they hate the Persians even more than them. But they could turn their guns back on us anytime.”

Baquba, in the heart of Diyala Province, north of Baghdad, is a microcosm of what happened. Last March, as the U.S. military was trying to retake this region from Iraqi jihadists — who had declared it the capital of “The Islamic State of Iraq” and imposed a reign terror, including beheadings for un-Islamic behavior, restrictions on women’s dress and a ban on smoking and alcohol — a U.S. intelligence drone picked up fighting between two Iraqi factions inside the city.

The next day, one of those factions, representing local Sunni tribes, asked a U.S. field officer for help in evicting the Islamic extremists. Thus began a cooperative endeavor that now embraces virtually all 25 Sunni and Shiite tribes in the area, and has the U.S. paying the tribes’ sons to be neighborhood patrols in their own towns and villages. As a result, Baquba’s market, which was sealed shut three months ago, was jammed on Sunday with women shopping for cucumbers, tomatoes and figs at different stalls and men making copies of documents at sidewalk Xerox machines.

Meanwhile, the U.S. forces also brought the official Iraqi Army back into Baquba — only this time with a new division commander — Maj. Gen. Salim Karim Salih, a respected, retired Sunni Army officer, who was one of Saddam’s top generals in the Iran-Iraq war and whose home was nearby. He, too, was ready to work with the Americans to get rid of the pro-Al Qaeda Iraqis.
“The citizens asked me to come back,” he told me. “We need a political solution. But the politics has to be impartial and not just favor one side. And we need action not more words.” That is code for the Shiite-led central government sending money to help repair the town, which it has started to do. “We are in a disaster state now,” added the governor of Diyala Province, Ra’ad al-Tamimi. “We hope the central government will interact with us in a better way.”

I understand the Shiite’s reticence. The Sunnis have resisted everything for four years and now they want government services.

But it is in our interest, because it increases the chances of the only possible solution here, and that is a loose federation in which each sect controls its own areas and Baghdad serves as an oil-funded A.T.M., dispensing cash proportionally.

That is the only way we can get out of here without Iraq exploding. Or, as a Kurdish official said to me: “If you wanted a united Iraq, you never should have gotten rid of Saddam, because he was the only one who could hold this place together.”
Maureen Dowd is off today.

Article: Hitchens Sees Three Wars

We're fighting at least three wars in Iraq. Do you want to end them all? - By Christopher Hitchens - Slate Magazine:

"When people say that they want to end the war in Iraq, I always want to ask them which war they mean. There are currently at least three wars, along with several subconflicts, being fought on Iraqi soil. The first, tragically, is the battle for mastery between Sunni and Shiite. The second is the campaign to isolate and defeat al-Qaida in Mesopotamia. The third is the struggle of Iraq's Kurdish minority to defend and consolidate its regional government in the north. "

Good one by Hitchens and spot on. As the article discusses, the most concerning of the three wars is of course the Shia rule attempting to use the U.S. to purge the Sunnis.

Atricle: China's Pollution

The New York Times > International > Interactive Feature > Choking on Growth

Great multimedia feature on the NYT site today talking about the cost of China's rapid growth. Indeed, a HUGE problem but at the same time, a problem that is going to be fixed by China. While the world will pressure the country to act on it's self, it will do so of its own volition. As the nation becomes wealthier it will have the ability to act and simply human nature will demand that the nation acts for its self. Little change is more effective than self influenced change.

Book: Success Stories

Success Stories, Robert Kiyosaki
8/26/07

Kiyosaki puts together a collection of 22 stories of people that have followed his Rich Dad principals and achieved financial success. Backgrounds range in age, walk of life, social class, etc., but all decided to focus in learning real estate or business investment or both. Indeed, the stories are motivational. Principals that are continually reinforced are being ok with failure, and through due diligence.

A story I noted was Michelle LaBrosse who had program management experience and desired to get her PMP (Program Management Professional) Certification and in the process wrote a course that she sold to others. Her business grew to the largest PMP training program in the industry.

The book is worth reading for motivation and to spur further study of topics found interesting.

Article: 4 Soldiers' Take on Iraq

The War as We Saw It - New York Times

Wow, you want a short essay on what is going on in Iraq right now and the realities that the US must face as we proceed read this. Written by a collection of soldiers from the 82d Airborne and in my opinion couldn't have been better captured by anyone. An impressive take.

August 19, 2007
Op-Ed Contributors
The War as We Saw It
By BUDDHIKA JAYAMAHA, WESLEY D. SMITH, JEREMY ROEBUCK, OMAR MORA, EDWARD SANDMEIER, YANCE T. GRAY and JEREMY A. MURPHY
Baghdad

VIEWED from Iraq at the tail end of a 15-month deployment, the political debate in Washington is indeed surreal. Counterinsurgency is, by definition, a competition between insurgents and counterinsurgents for the control and support of a population. To believe that Americans, with an occupying force that long ago outlived its reluctant welcome, can win over a recalcitrant local population and win this counterinsurgency is far-fetched. As responsible infantrymen and noncommissioned officers with the 82nd Airborne Division soon heading back home, we are skeptical of recent press coverage portraying the conflict as increasingly manageable and feel it has neglected the mounting civil, political and social unrest we see every day. (Obviously, these are our personal views and should not be seen as official within our chain of command.)

The claim that we are increasingly in control of the battlefields in Iraq is an assessment arrived at through a flawed, American-centered framework. Yes, we are militarily superior, but our successes are offset by failures elsewhere. What soldiers call the “battle space” remains the same, with changes only at the margins. It is crowded with actors who do not fit neatly into boxes: Sunni extremists, Al Qaeda terrorists, Shiite militiamen, criminals and armed tribes. This situation is made more complex by the questionable loyalties and Janus-faced role of the Iraqi police and Iraqi Army, which have been trained and armed at United States taxpayers’ expense.

A few nights ago, for example, we witnessed the death of one American soldier and the critical wounding of two others when a lethal armor-piercing explosive was detonated between an Iraqi Army checkpoint and a police one. Local Iraqis readily testified to American investigators that Iraqi police and Army officers escorted the triggermen and helped plant the bomb. These civilians highlighted their own predicament: had they informed the Americans of the bomb before the incident, the Iraqi Army, the police or the local Shiite militia would have killed their families.

As many grunts will tell you, this is a near-routine event. Reports that a majority of Iraqi Army commanders are now reliable partners can be considered only misleading rhetoric. The truth is that battalion commanders, even if well meaning, have little to no influence over the thousands of obstinate men under them, in an incoherent chain of command, who are really loyal only to their militias. Similarly, Sunnis, who have been underrepresented in the new Iraqi armed forces, now find themselves forming militias, sometimes with our tacit support. Sunnis recognize that the best guarantee they may have against Shiite militias and the Shiite-dominated government is to form their own armed bands. We arm them to aid in our fight against Al Qaeda.

However, while creating proxies is essential in winning a counterinsurgency, it requires that the proxies are loyal to the center that we claim to support. Armed Sunni tribes have indeed become effective surrogates, but the enduring question is where their loyalties would lie in our absence. The Iraqi government finds itself working at cross purposes with us on this issue because it is justifiably fearful that Sunni militias will turn on it should the Americans leave.

In short, we operate in a bewildering context of determined enemies and questionable allies, one where the balance of forces on the ground remains entirely unclear. (In the course of writing this article, this fact became all too clear: one of us, Staff Sergeant Murphy, an Army Ranger and reconnaissance team leader, was shot in the head during a “time-sensitive target acquisition mission” on Aug. 12; he is expected to survive and is being flown to a military hospital in the United States.) While we have the will and the resources to fight in this context, we are effectively hamstrung because realities on the ground require measures we will always refuse — namely, the widespread use of lethal and brutal force.

Given the situation, it is important not to assess security from an American-centered perspective. The ability of, say, American observers to safely walk down the streets of formerly violent towns is not a resounding indicator of security. What matters is the experience of the local citizenry and the future of our counterinsurgency. When we take this view, we see that a vast majority of Iraqis feel increasingly insecure and view us as an occupation force that has failed to produce normalcy after four years and is increasingly unlikely to do so as we continue to arm each warring side.

Coupling our military strategy to an insistence that the Iraqis meet political benchmarks for reconciliation is also unhelpful. The morass in the government has fueled impatience and confusion while providing no semblance of security to average Iraqis. Leaders are far from arriving at a lasting political settlement. This should not be surprising, since a lasting political solution will not be possible while the military situation remains in constant flux.

The Iraqi government is run by the main coalition partners of the Shiite-dominated United Iraqi Alliance, with Kurds as minority members. The Shiite clerical establishment formed the alliance to make sure its people did not succumb to the same mistake as in 1920: rebelling against the occupying Western force (then the British) and losing what they believed was their inherent right to rule Iraq as the majority. The qualified and reluctant welcome we received from the Shiites since the invasion has to be seen in that historical context. They saw in us something useful for the moment.

Now that moment is passing, as the Shiites have achieved what they believe is rightfully theirs. Their next task is to figure out how best to consolidate the gains, because reconciliation without consolidation risks losing it all. Washington’s insistence that the Iraqis correct the three gravest mistakes we made — de-Baathification, the dismantling of the Iraqi Army and the creation of a loose federalist system of government — places us at cross purposes with the government we have committed to support.

Political reconciliation in Iraq will occur, but not at our insistence or in ways that meet our benchmarks. It will happen on Iraqi terms when the reality on the battlefield is congruent with that in the political sphere. There will be no magnanimous solutions that please every party the way we expect, and there will be winners and losers. The choice we have left is to decide which side we will take. Trying to please every party in the conflict — as we do now — will only ensure we are hated by all in the long run. At the same time, the most important front in the counterinsurgency, improving basic social and economic conditions, is the one on which we have failed most miserably. Two million Iraqis are in refugee camps in bordering countries. Close to two million more are internally displaced and now fill many urban slums. Cities lack regular electricity, telephone services and sanitation. “Lucky” Iraqis live in gated communities barricaded with concrete blast walls that provide them with a sense of communal claustrophobia rather than any sense of security we would consider normal.

In a lawless environment where men with guns rule the streets, engaging in the banalities of life has become a death-defying act. Four years into our occupation, we have failed on every promise, while we have substituted Baath Party tyranny with a tyranny of Islamist, militia and criminal violence. When the primary preoccupation of average Iraqis is when and how they are likely to be killed, we can hardly feel smug as we hand out care packages. As an Iraqi man told us a few days ago with deep resignation, “We need security, not free food.”

In the end, we need to recognize that our presence may have released Iraqis from the grip of a tyrant, but that it has also robbed them of their self-respect. They will soon realize that the best way to regain dignity is to call us what we are — an army of occupation — and force our withdrawal.

Until that happens, it would be prudent for us to increasingly let Iraqis take center stage in all matters, to come up with a nuanced policy in which we assist them from the margins but let them resolve their differences as they see fit. This suggestion is not meant to be defeatist, but rather to highlight our pursuit of incompatible policies to absurd ends without recognizing the incongruities.

We need not talk about our morale. As committed soldiers, we will see this mission through.
Buddhika Jayamaha is an Army specialist. Wesley D. Smith is a sergeant. Jeremy Roebuck is a sergeant. Omar Mora is a sergeant. Edward Sandmeier is a sergeant. Yance T. Gray is a staff sergeant. Jeremy A. Murphy is a staff sergeant.

Travel: Paddling in Maine

Paddling Down Maine From Inn to Inn - New York Times

Grab a boat and paddle along the coast avoiding the cheap commerce on either end of the towns for scenic coast line. Seems like a nice way to go. I've driven this, might be nice to paddle it. The restaurants sound good enough to make it all worth while.

Book: Wall Street Meat

Wall Street Meat, Andy Kessler
8/23/07

The book autobiographically takes the reader from Kessler’s leaving Bell Labs and beginning as an analyst for Paine Webber and then on to Morgan Stanley. It can almost be called an expose of the investment banking industry as technology entered the market. It is a quick and easy read that, like all of the Kessler work I have read, has many lessons to teach. The concept that everyone on Wall Street is meat is pretty founded. Wall Street provides the world access to capital and can never be replaced. The worlds smartest are there constantly looking for the next way to make a buck. If you want a glimpse of what Wall Street was like up until the internet bubble popped this tells the story fairly well.

Interesting to read this as the “credit bubble” is in the middle of popping, yet again, I’m sure Wall Street will reinvent its self. Another thing I noted was how, like anywhere, personal networks provide access to everything, from information to boxing tickets.

Weight Workout

Traditional weight day:
3x3x12 chest
3x3x12 sholder
3x3x12 tri

Blog: Credit Markets

I don’t pretend to be an economist, but the current effect the credit markets are having on the economy is simply fascinating.  As always, the market seldom behaves as expected.  The idea that so much debt was leveraged in such a seemingly safe way is tremendous.  This is what I have gathered:

Debt was cheap and improperly assessed as high grade.  That is, loans that might default were viewed as loans that wouldn’t default.  Much of that was based on the assumption that housing prices would rise.  Regular folks were getting interest only loans and other mortgages that allowed them to buy more house than they would have been able to with conventional instruments such as a 30 year fixed rate loan.  Many people were doing that and the real estate market was able to increase prices faster than a more conventional credit market would have allowed.  The result is inflated housing prices.  Now, I don’t think we have really heard how much this permeates the commercial real estate market, but certainly we’ll see in the coming months.

Simultaneously, hedge funds have been leveraging (borrowing money for) huge positions as to make small profits, but many times over, on seemingly sure thing, historically validated, trades.  As the ability to borrow money (form the credit markets, again) decreased because of sub-prime concerns positions had to be covered to prevent further losses.  Hence the market plunges.

Now central banks step in and dump money into the economy.  From my “globalist view” that is great because it make money cheaper for growing economies, but as any pundit will tell you, that devalues everything to create liquidity.  Fundamentally, more money in the system facilitates economic growth at the possible risk of inflation.  (I had to brush up my economics and did it here) Of course, increasing the money supply doesn’t have any effect on the rate of delinquency of those maybe not so sure not to default mortgages.

So what I would imagine comes next:  Clearly housing prices have to correct.  Some people that need to refinance adjustable rate mortgages are going to have to do so with their home’s value appraised at less than they paid for it and they will be unable to get new adjustable rate or interest only mortgages.  People might have to see their homes (at a loss) or risk defaulting on their mortgage.  Perhaps the same will occur in commercial real estate.  Simultaneously, the “new reality” in the credit markets will make hedge funds less able to borrow money to buy companies which will inject less money into the stock market.  I think the economy is strong, but at the same time, the possibility of a recession certainly seems reasonable, it just seems like there will be less money to invest in businesses and therefore grow the economy.

The most conservative (credit doomsayer) blog I read is MarketTicker.  I think a lot of his predictions are valid and if you’re interested in this sort of stuff it seems like very informed analysis.

Workout

5 times:
400m run
12 Dips
12 Feet to Hands

Book: 7 Habits of Highly Effective People

7 Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey
8/10/07

7 Habits is a tremendous life changing book that spells out the common
sense of living well and being happy. The idea is that habits based on
principals fit everywhere and drive to the core of what we would all
aspire to be. Simply summarized as "Make and keep promises and involve
others in a problem and work together to solve it.

As all the habits are applied the concept of Production vs. Production
Capacity is kept in mind. The balance between producing and improving
the machine that produces is key. This can be applied you one's self, a
business, a relationship, etc. So learn, develop (PC), and do (P).

The book, and habits really, are divided into two parts: 1-3 is
developing independence and creating a private victory (with ones self)
and 4-6 are about reaching interdependence and creating a public victory
(with a team). The last habit is about renewal.

First, one must define who they are. Habit 1 is to Be Proactive, decide
what you want to be and take action. Once you have created that, Habit
2 is to Begin with the End in Mind. That is, make the plan, write a
personal mission statement. This is the leadership step, how do achieve
what is really important, what does the end look like? Once you have
that, you're ready for Habit 3, Put First Things First. It is the idea
of prioritizing your day to day life. The management step. Developing
relationships is important, but not urgent and it is often neglected.
Naturally, there should be focus here instead of interruptions that are
"urgent." These first three steps liberate you from being dependent on
other people and value yourself and your time.

Once a platform of independence is established the quest for
interdependence begins. These habits rely on developing productive
relationships with everyone: in business, at home, etc. Habit 4 is
Think Win/Win. How can a solution be found that everyone feels good
about? You don't want to get walked on, but if everyone can win
relationships are strengthened and production increases. A caveat to
this is Win/Win or No Deal. In some situations, if a Win/Win solution
cannot be found, it might be best for both parties to walk away. Part
of getting to a Win/Win solution is Habit 5, Seek First to Understand,
then be Understood. To truly listen to someone and understand their
point of view is essential to effective relationships. To stop and
listen and understand is obviously very hard especially when people
think they are right or are passionate. Once Habit 5 is achieved, the
relationship is prepared for Habit 6, Synergize. Synergy is defined as
the whole being greater than its parts. 1+1=3. Once both parties
understand one and other and the foundations of the situation and
appreciated by all the group can come together to find new ideas and
growth that would have been otherwise unobtainable.

Habit 7 is to Sharpen the Saw. Taking time to develop once physical,
mental, spiritual, and Social/Emotional dimensions. Through this, the
study of the habits begins anew.

Following and implementing these habits is no small task, but striving
to do so is rewarding everyday. From developing a mission statement to
writing down goals to define one's self reveals endless possibilities.
Then, to have synergistic interaction may be, quite simply, the point.

Book: OPM

OPM: Other Peoples Money, Michael Lechter
8/11/07

OPM is a book about finding money to fund a venture. Instead of finding
a great business deal and saying "I can't afford it" you learn here that
you just have to find the right stream of capital. Funding sources are
many, but the book begins by reviewing why one would need funding and
typical ways businesses go about getting it. For starters, simple
stories that show how a business' present and future value is calculated
are told. That is followed by brief explanations of business plans and
financial statements that would be prepared to get funding. The major
sources of funding for both small to medium business are discussed and
include: Friends and Family (Seed Money), Angel Investors ($500k-$1M),
Venture capital ($1M-$50M), Banks, Joint Ventures, Strategic
Partnerships, and Licensing.

Throughout the book securities laws are reinforced and the importance of
having a good lawyer ensures that all are in compliance with them. The
book provides a great 300 page overview to a subject that could fill
many volumes. As part of the Rich Dad series it is simply a taste of
what is out there and as one becomes more interested in a specific
source of funding more reading and research would be required. This
makes sense as it would be unlikely that someone would be seeking Angle
and VC funding at the same time.

Workouts

6/9/07
6 times
2 min run
2 min rest

6/10/07
30 min run
5 rounds, max reps, BW Bench Press
4 rounds, max reps, strict pullups
3 rounds, 12 reps, squat machine

Article: 6 Stocks

6 Trends to Bank On
From Fortune Magazine, Aug 07
By Tom Gardner, Motley Fool

6 Trends and stocks to go with them:
1 - Digital Gadgets are here to stay (Dolby Labs, DLB)
2 - We're going to need oil for awhile (Unit Corp, UNT)
3 - Everyone is eating out all the time; buy the oven maker (Middleby
Corp, MIDD)
4 - In the south, they are still building homes (MDC Holdings, MDC)
5 - Medical Records are going to go electronic (Quality Systems, QSII)
6 - Adventure Sports are here to stay too (Volcom, VLCM)

All these are long holds, at least five years. Really, I should say
short holds at five years.

Article: Hang Your Hammock Here

From Aug 07 Men’s Health Best Life

 

Five up and coming alternatives to overpriced real estate hot spots:

 

Turkish Rivera over Croatia’s Dalmatian Coast

Dominican Republic’s Samana Peninsula vs. Vieques, Puerto Rico

Nicaragua over Costa Rica

Romanian Alps over the Italian Alps

Mendoza, Argentina over Riojas, Spain

 

The logic is simple, the other places have been done and the others are up and coming, if even that.  You have got to have some long term thinking to make the profit here.

Book: Atlas Shrugged

Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand

8/4/07

 

Who is John Galt?  To understand you’ll have to read the book, but in essence, he is the voice of capitalism.  Ayn Rand uses a good story to illustrate the woes of government regulation that taxes capitalistic endeavors.  It is about rules that strip the competitive marketplace of its competition and kill the marketplace and the economy. The story tells how this might happen.  One must take into account that the book was written in the 1950’s and the results of the themes, Objectivism, as it is called, looks a lot like what globalization looks like today.

 

What I enjoyed the most was the spirit of the characters.  The industrialists were driven by nothing but desire to succeed.  Never mind the financial reward; though they slowly learned how it could be enjoyed, rather, the best reward was the running of a successful enterprise.

 

Additionally, the book teaches that the best industrialists, or business persons, have unquestionable character and that is impressive.  The concept is that every deal is a trade where both people can win.  Get rid of the tricks and you have a better marketplace.  The tricks are that of the looters, attempting to cheat and get ahead.

 

“Nobody stays here by faking reality in any manner whatever” – Ayn Rand

 

“I swear by my life and my love of it that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine” – Ayn Rand

Article: The Credit Market

The Loan Comes Due

NYT, 8/5/07

 

Following the spin of the credit market has been fascinating for me.  As this article points out, a correction of the type of credit that is being “corrected” right now hasn’t been seen before.  What fascinates me is all the implications.  Like, credit squeeze.  I would argue that money had flowed into the stock market, less money was available for the credit market, housing prices and interest rates rise, refinancing needs to happen because of 3/1 ARM’s and the like (don’t we all wish we went for the 30 year fixed right now?), but inflation stays in check.  The results are this, as the article says, lack of available money to finance things.  Wow.  So how do you play it?

Croosfit Workout

Cleans: 7 rounds of 1

Article: Head, Sholder, Foot

From a startup blog, this short one talks about the types of people to build a business around, in reality, I think you can build you’re life around this concept, you need them all as part of your personal network.  Business, life, anything really, simple concept, find the people that play these parts.  Posted in full below.

Head, shoulder, foot!
from Found & Read

Founders often overlook 3 key emotional components when building their teams.

By mike simonsen, August 01, 2007  —  0 Comments

Most founders think about complementing technical or business skills when they build their intial team. Fewer think about the emotional components required to marshal the operation to success. When we started Altos Research, a great entrepreneur (my Mom, as it turns out) gave me the following advice about the emotional side of building a business: Every entrepreneur needs a head, a shoulder, and a foot. (If these don’t sound like “emotional” componenets, hear me out.)

The Head is the person who gives you your strategic guidance.
The independent voice with whom you discuss the business, the options, and the best tactics for reaching your goals. I have a group of advisers that I turn to regularly: VC friends who are not investors in my company are particularly valuable. Other successful entrepreneurs provide unbiased insight – “Don’t budget for better than 5:1 sales comp ratio, Mike.” Your Head needs to be a person who just gets it. Someone who helps you think bigger and better. Someone who you don’t have to educate or sell. Someone who wants you to succeed.

The Shoulder is the person you lean on when times are tough.
Every founder lives through the down-cycles and self-doubt. Your Shoulder says, “You’ll pull through it. Your product is so amazing!” Most of the time your Shoulder can’t be an employee or investor. Employees and investors need to see you as indefatigable. Your spouse may not be your Shoulder either. My wife does not want to hear that I’m worried about making the mortgage payment. The Shoulder is a rare kind of advisor, usually someone very close, even family, but with little actually at stake in your business. The Shoulder simply knows you can’t fail.

The Foot is the one who kicks you in the ass when you need it.
For me this is the role my wife takes. She is the one I can’t let down. When we started the company, she set a deadline for our firm to have revenue – or I’d have to go get a job. We made that deadline, and now it’s part of our routine to keep her appraised of the sales growth. She lets me know if my targets are too low. The Foot is often the best role for your VCs, if you have a good relationship with them: “You showed me your plan, go make your numbers!” (But, if you have a lousy or confrontational relationship with your VCs, then the investor-driven-numbers game can devolve into meaningless bs, so watch out.) At Altos Research, we have no outside investors, so my wife is the non-employee with the most at stake. She is the Foot, the person who won’t let me slow down long enough to fail.

The trick is to know the people around you who are best for each role. Maybe that’s why having multiple founders can be advantageous. My co-founder is an excellent Head for me. We can make sweeping strategic decisions in minutes. I have to go outside the company for the other body parts.

Just don’t expect your Shoulder to contribute to big strategy decisions.

Don’t expect sympathy from your Foot.

 

Intervals and Weights

8 times:

45 sec sprint

1 min rest

 

Men’s Health Chest Workout (3 super sets of 3 rounds of 2 exer)

Article: Iraq

A War We Just Might Win

NYT

 

Opinion piece that talks about how the U.S. Military surge is working under GEN Petraus.  Perhaps the author is right, the us is beginning to "win" a bit more.  The US forces are doing more, fixing things for the people, creating a stable Iraq.  Things are going better in Iraq today than they were a year ago.

 

I see the problem now being that Americans are fixing Iraqi problems because the Iraqi's don't have to.  Wining, as Tom Barnett points out, shouldn't be our aim in Iraq, it should be to let the Iraqis win.  And of course, without the Iraqis out front, throughout the country, the ability to sustain this level of success is almost impossible.

 

Anyhow, between this article and the link to Tom Barnett's blog, it is a good count of Iraq today.

Crossfit Workout

4 rounds:
20 Pull Ups
30 Push Ups
40 Sit Ups
50 Squats

Time: 23min

Article: Subtleties of a Fixer

At War, at Home, at Risk, NYT

 

Amazing article about a “fixer” (local that foreign reporters would hire to explain culture, translate, etc.) who worked for the BBC in Iraq and then came to Columbia Journalism School.  First tremendous set of points relates to the explanations of the initial excitement of events in Iraq as he assisted in the reporting of the news back to the west.  Also notable is discussion of how the western reporter explained to the author how the fixer would become the journalist once the western media ebbed.  How accurate, I believe that the fixers, interpreters, and youngest of Iraq Army Officers will be the one who get it, understand western efficiencies and will be the ones to bring true revolution Iraq many days form now.  Last point is the struggles of the fixer in NYC trying to understand our local issues, that of a political race (horse race or track race, he wonders) and his struggle to understand.  I take that as an implication of the struggle western reporters must have had to understand roots of issues in Iraq.

 

 

Artice: Distrobution of Wealth

The Richest of the Rich, Proud of a New Gilded Age

A discussion of the state of the super rich that have grown that way from hard work and smart investment.  Then, in most cases, these ultra rich folks (Bill Gates, Buffet, etc.) turn around and give it all away.  The government keeps taxes reasonable which give the rich control of their profits, which, in the end, makes the world a better place.  This article goes well with my current read of Atlas Shrugged by Ann Rand.  While that was written in the 50’s it is interesting to consider why it was being written then (as corporate tax rates soared to 70% in the 70’s as the article presents).  Today, the climate is good for business, and good for the world.

Article: Turkey

Turkey's big result

 

Worth taking note of the Turkish People saying no to a religiously run state.  Figure they look to their east and don’t like what they see.  I think the turks see a place for religion yet at the same time, want to enjoy the freedoms the see to the west.  While many might argue, I certainly agree with Tom Barnett (as usual) and support the notion that events currently happening in Iraq help this for a pro-secular state outcome.  That is, we don’t want to be ruled by a bunch of muhallas and we don’t want to deal with the Terrorism that comes when you’re in the middle of states who are grasping for power, as in Iraq.  Did the Iraq invasion have to happen for the Turks to see this, maybe not, but the ideal certainly helps, join the core or get sucked into the gap, perhaps.

 

Corssfit WOD

3 times:

400m run

21 45# Dumbell Swings

12 Pull Ups

 

20 min run

Article: Not that Bad

A Reality-Based Economy

Good one from David Brooks that does something headlines seem to forget: tie in all the other story lines.  We often see stories of how ht rich are getting so much richer, etc.  There are a lot of other things to consider, like how the poor are seeing their incomes rise as well.  Of course, deeper than the Brooks analysis here, is how if we are all getting richer, together, at once, is anyone’s quality of live improving that much?  In general, I would say no, but I do bet there is a little more discretionary income out there. Spent wisely, it could be the bridge from poor to middle class, and so on.  Or, at least a fun weekend in at a Biloxi casino!

 

It total:

July 24, 2007

Op-Ed Columnist

By DAVID BROOKS

If you’ve paid attention to the presidential campaign, you’ve heard the neopopulist story line. C.E.O.’s are seeing their incomes skyrocket while the middle class gets squeezed. The tides of globalization work against average Americans while most of the benefits go to the top 1 percent.

This story is not entirely wrong, but it is incredibly simple-minded. To believe it, you have to suppress a whole string of complicating facts.

The first complicating fact is that after a lag, average wages are rising sharply. Real average wages rose by 2 percent in 2006, the second fastest rise in 30 years.

The second complicating fact is that according to the Congressional Budget Office, earnings for the poorest fifth of Americans are also on the increase. As Ron Haskins of the Brookings Institution noted recently in The Washington Post, between 1991 and 2005, “the bottom fifth increased its earnings by 80 percent, compared with around 50 percent for the highest-income group and around 20 percent for each of the other three groups.”

The third complicating fact is that despite years of scare stories, income volatility is probably not trending upward. A study by the C.B.O. has found that incomes are no more unstable now than they were in the 1980s and 1990s.

The fourth complicating fact is that recent rises in inequality have less to do with the grinding unfairness of globalization than with the reality that the market increasingly rewards education and hard work.

A few years ago, the rewards for people earning college degrees seemed to flatten out. But more recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that the education premium is again on the rise.

Fifth, companies are getting more efficient at singling out and rewarding productive workers. A study by the economists Thomas Lemieux, Daniel Parent and W. Bentley MacLeod suggests that as much as 24 percent of the increase in male wage inequality is due to performance pay.

Sixth, inequality is also rising in part because people up the income scale work longer hours. In 1965, less educated Americans and more educated Americans worked the same number of hours a week. But today, many highly educated people work like dogs while those down the income scale have seen their leisure time increase by a phenomenal 14 hours a week.

Seventh, it’s not at all clear that the big winners in this economy are self-dealing corporate greedheads who are bilking shareholders. A study by Steven N. Kaplan and Joshua Rauh finds that it’s not corporate honchos who are filling up the ranks of the filthy rich. It’s hedge fund managers. Or, as Kaplan and Rauh put it, “the top 25 hedge fund managers combined appear to have earned more than all 500 S.&P. 500 C.E.O.’s combined.” The hedge fund guys are profiting not because there’s been a shift in social norms favoring the megarich. It’s just that a few superstars are now handling so much capital.

Eighth, to the extent that C.E.O. pay packets have thickened (and they have), there may be good economic reasons. The bigger a company gets, the more a talented C.E.O. can do to increase earnings. Over the past two and a half decades, the value of top U.S. companies has increased 500 percent, according to Xavier Gabaix and Augustin Landier. The compensation for the C.E.O.’s of those companies has also increased 500 percent.

Ninth, we’re in the middle of one of the greatest economic eras ever. Global poverty has declined at astounding rates. Globalization boosts each American household’s income by about $10,000 a year. The U.S. economy, despite all the bad-mouthing, is chugging along. Thanks to all the growth, tax revenues are at 18.8 percent of G.D.P., higher than the historical average. The deficit is down to about 1.5 percent of G.D.P., below the historical average.

All of this is not to say everything is hunky-dory. Inequality is obviously increasing. There’s evidence that global trade is producing more losers.

Instead, the main point is that the Democratic campaign rhetoric is taking on a life of its own, and drifting further away from reality. Feeding off pessimism about the war and anger at Washington, candidates now compete to tell dark, angry and conspiratorial stories about the economy.

I doubt there’s much Republicans can do to salvage their fortunes by 2008. But over the long term a G.O.P. rebound can be built by capturing the Bill Clinton/Democratic Leadership Council ground that the Democrats are now abandoning. Whoever gets globalization right will have a bright future, and in the long run, the facts matter.

 

Quote: Hate

We hate some persons because we do not know them; and we will not know them because we hate them.
  - Charles Caleb Colton

Blog: Great Net Articles

10 Articles That Changed My Life
Great collection of some great articles that are worth reading a few times over.  Found this post while scouring digg.com which is a site that ranks stories based on user “diggs”

Travel: Montenegro

An Adriatic Stretch Is Awaiting Its Riviera Moment

The Adriatic coast as a destination is growing.  You’re east of Italy’s boot, across the Adriatic Sea.  Montenegro is south of Croatia and north of Albania, all west of the mess that is ending: Bosnia, et al. Stability is sweeping the former communist countries.  And look at the beaches.  Globalization happens and on come the tourists.

Article: Google Phones

Google Pushes for Rules to Aid Wireless Plans

 

This is why Google is great and we’ll surly be driving our Googles to the Google to get some Google soon.  May as well add that we’ll be googling ahead with our Google phones.  The reality is that Google sees a area ripe for reform.  The lack of innovation of the FCC is appalling.  Clearly, with so much radio waves dedicated to say, TV, and so little to mobile phones, things need to be redone, and in their defense, the FCC is doing that.  Unfortunately, I think that they have been over lobbied by the cell phone companies who want to maintain their lock over the industry.  In reality, sell more bandwidth, make in “open” (which is a Google way of thinking) and you’ll see all sorts of innovation.  The mobile market is long over due of some serious bandwidth and content improvements.  My mobile should be just as good as my computer sitting in a coffee shot.