Pretty long book review here, but some HUGE ideas. I think the Heroes and Headlines that are discussed at the end are worth a few minutes of contemplation if your interesting in really thinking about where the world will be 20 years or so down the road.
Blueprint for Action, Thomas Barnett
8/29/07
Finishing this book makes me eager to watch the future unfold and simultaneously makes me wonder why it took me so long to get through the volume. I purchased this book more than a year and a half ago and have been reading it on and off since. If Thomas Friedman is thinking 5-10 years out, Barnett is 10-40 years out and his vision is unmatched by anything I have read. Indeed his blueprint for action clearly leads to a future worth creating.
In his first book, The Pentagon’s New Map, Barnett introduced a lexicon to discuss the current security and globalization situation. There is the Core, the connected states, and the Gap, the areas of the world that is plagued by violence and dictatorship. There are subdivisions, the New Core consisting of China and India, etc. and the Old Core, the U.S., Europe, etc. The seam states are those that are positioned to come one way or the next and allow the Core to access the Gap, i.e. Turkey. Barnett’s offering to establish a system to bring the Gap into the New Core revolves around a Leviathan force in the U.S. Military, able to win wars, and then a System Administration force to win the peace. (Where we lack the numbers in Iraq the Sys Admin coalition would step in)
This book sets out to find a realizable solution, though not immediately executable, clearly his solution is offered as an optimistic alternative to the many doomsayers. He premise is simple, connect the gap and it goes away.
What makes this book so challenging is not that it isn’t written in an easy to understand manner, and it isn’t dry either, it is simply overwhelming. It is hard to think about the reality of how these huge ideas can be applied the world over. So much subtlety yields so much possibility. Simple premises that Barnett injects are so true, yet so hard to comprehend. For example, one of Barnett’s premises is that so many futurists speak doom of the future upon the assumption that humans will not alter than ways or innovate around future problems. He explains that we didn’t leave the Stone Age because we ran out of stones just as we won’t leave the oil age because we ran out of oil; rather, we found a better alternative. The same will be true for oil. Not cause to stop the worry or concern, just a dose of reality.
One of the stunning realities is as the New Core grows; they will dictate rule sets and innovations to the rest of the world. It makes sense. Who needs alternative energy more, the U.S. or China? With China’s growth rate and pollution problems compounded by less per capita discretionary budget results in China needing alternative energy while the U.S. would just like alternative energy. Innovate they will.
As Barnett concludes his blueprint he suggests future heroes we should be looking for and then goes on to suggest one of the greatest ways to see the future is to write the headlines a few years down the road. He takes his own advice.
From the Conclusion (elaborated upon in the text, but headings only provide a summary):
Heroes to Look For:
In Military Affairs:
The four star military police general
Japan’s first combat causality since World War II
Americas first SysAdmin force civilian held captive by the enemy
The “father of Post conflict stabilization and reconstruction operations”
The first SysAdmin soldier to win the Congressional Medal of Honor
The inventor of the Peacemaker (a non lethal weapon with the impact of the Colt 45)
The Sectary of Everything Else (the new Peace Department)
In the National Security Establishment:
The feminist neo-con (spreading feminism throughout the gap)
The reeducation president (education for adults)
The Last Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security)
The first Hispanic major-party nominee for president
The first governor of the fifty-first state of the union
The firs “Chinese daughter” to run for major political office
The Echo Boomers “George Kennan” (Kennan the famous grand strategist, the Echo generation is the result of the baby boomers and as mentioned by Barnett, his key audience (born 1980-1995)
In the politics throughout the Core:
The EU’s: Woodrow Wilson (The Good Cop to the U.S. Bad Cop, keeps balance and builds consensus)
The first Brazilian chair of the G-20 summit
Russia’s Bill Clinton (builds the economy)
The Martin Luther King of Islamic Europe
The “Serpico” who blows the lid of human rights abuses in the global war on terrorism (Serpico investigated NYC police corruption)
The first Russian Secretary General of NATO
The first Old Core company to pay reparation to Gap victims (i.e. Germany after WWII)
In China:
China’s JFK (To the world, ask what China can do for you)
China’s Erin Brockovich (Clean up the pollution)
The first Chinese General Sectary of the North Pacific Treaty Organization
China’s Billy Graham
The first Chinese commander of a joint Sino-American SysAdmin operation
In India:
India’s Margaret Thatcher
India’s Bill Gates
India’s first Oscar-winning Best Picture producer
In the Islamic Middle East
Wired Magazines blogger of the year
The first Arab political leader who leaves office when his legal term ends
The Eminem of Muslim rap
The first Islamic religious leader to win the Nobel Prize
Iran’s John Marshall
Last peacekeeper killed along the Israel-Palestine security fence
The first female leader of an Arab state
In Africa:
The first VJay of MTV Africa
The first African Pope (we’ll there has been three before, but 1500 years ago)
The great African-American political spokesman for African security issues
The first African “Big Man” to surrender power on an ICC plea bargain
The first U.S. military commander of African Command (wait, this has been done since the book printed)
The African Union’s peacekeeping troops win a Nobel Peace Prize
Then, on to the headlines:
2010:
Nixon Goes to Tehran: Grad Bargain in the Works between US and Iran
Doha Round Agreement Hailed as Historic Breakthrough for Struggling Economies
Kim Steps Down After Joint US-China Ultimatum; Korean Reunification Near
Super Flu Overwhelmed Most Nations Medical Systems; Half of Deaths Preventable
Iran-Israel Agreement on Nukes Triggers Tehran’s Recognition of Jewish State
National Security Act Establishes Department of Overseas Contingency Response
Iraqi President Lifts Emergency Decree, Immediately Relinquishes Military Post
China-ASEAN Pact Accelerates Agenda for Asian Free-Trade Area; Japan Korea Next
Synchronized Attacks Drive G-30 to create World Counterterrorism Organization
China’s Demand for Resources Provided Economic Liftoff for Southern Africa
Nuclear Detonation in Northwest Pakistan Described as Terrorist ‘Mistake’
China’s ‘Black Summer’ Triggers Unprecedented Social Unrest; Tipping Point Seen
Putin’s Handpicked Successor Bows to Massive Protest, Accepts Election Defeat
Asia, EU Propel Negotiations for South American Free Trade Zone
Turkey Surprisingly Rapid Entry into EU Signals Europe’s Tilt Toward Arab World
2015
Response to Adana Earthquake Proves Utility of Multination Contingency Force
Taiwan Vote Clears Way for Political ‘Road Map’ Treaty with Mainland China
Russia Begins Formal Membership Talks with EU; Energy Ties Result in ‘Fast Track’
Caspian Coordination Group Finalized Long Term Pipeline Grid Construction Plan
US Led Multination Force Invades Northern Colombia; Bogota in Flames
Kyoto II Accord Goes into Effect When Indian Parliament Approves Pact
Thanks to NATO Effort, AU Peacemaking Force Proves its Mettle in Central Africa
Brasilia Harmonization Talks Yield Draft Treaty for Free Trade Area of the Americas
Korea’s ‘Four Powers’ Served as Embryo for Pacific Rim Treaty Organization
2020
Spread of Religion Across China Alters Policies, Style of Sixth-Generation Leadership
Islamic Opposition Parties Succeed in Loosening EU Restrictions on Immigration
Persian Gulf Security Alliance Cements Role of India and Iran as Regional Pillars
EU Pact with North Africa and Mideast States Completes Goal of Mediterranean Zone
Hispanic Voters Emerge as Key Swing Vote in US National Elections
National Elections Complete Transition of Saudi Monarchy to Constitutional States
Online Game Triggers Dictator’s Departure; Stunning Victory of ‘People’s Diplomacy’
2025
Final Section of Wall Dismantled as Peacekeepers Depart Palestine-Israel Border
Previously String Islamic Terror Network in Africa Now Described as Neutralized
In Historic Shift, Growing Hydrogen Economy Leads to Peaking of Global Oil Demand
Cuba’s ‘Statehood Movement’ Grows Island Vote to Become 53rd State Seems Likely
Lunar Base Global Consortium Plans First Roundtrip of Space Elevator This Year
