Sunday, June 17, 2007
Article: Alaska
Alaska is waiting for it's next boon and in the interim it might just go bust. Well, not really. The $38 billion oil trust that provides a $1,000 or so check to every Alaskan every year will be there. The reality is that it takes a lot of federal money to keep that huge state going. And sure their is the oil, but from reading this article you can draw some parallels between Alaskans and the oil empire states of the Middle East. The age old natural resource economy ultimately runs dry when the world moves on or it is all used up. Of course everyone knows that Alaska has untapped oil and perhaps gold. But there is the environment to consider. Ironically those $1,000 payouts would do nicely to offset the the U.S. Federal investment, but people grow that sense of entitlement (much as Arabs enjoy not being taxed, you best not campaign to take that away).
Interesting times ahead for the great state to the north.
Article: Virtual Markets
While most are familiar with the whole massive multiplayer online game market I have been rather fascinated by the economies they produce. This article blows me away for so many reasons.
I first gained an appreciation for the economies behind the massive multiplayer online (MMO) game Everquest in an article in Utne Magazine (given to me by an airplane friend). The one page or so article suggested that the GDP of Everquest ranked 60 or so internationaly, some where around Switzerland. That much money changing hands. You can only imagine how it has grown.
The premise is simple, some players make the virtual currency for the game by slogging though the "grind" (killing monsters, making potions, etc.) and sell it to those who would rather do other things. While I have never found myself immersed in a MMO I certainly know people that have. This is addictive stuff. I remember a cousin of mine excited for his buddy coming in for the weekend and was going to buy some gold. In essence, he was going to spend real money to be able to do more interesting things in the game. Simple class structure, burger flippers and the white collars.
So enter all the crazy globalization questions. Are these really sweat shops in China? Is playing games for 12 hours a day that bad of a way to scratch out a living? If you say they are sweat shops because of the low pay, long hours, etc. why to the Chinese choose to do it? Given all this exchanging of real money (of many international denominations) how are the deals brokered? Sure you have the big sites that the article discusses, but think about that for a second. International currency flow, then the virtual money has to be delivered in the game to said character. So that means someone out there is piloting a character that has a bunch of money that is doling out payments. He can't have all the big money distributors money, because it has to get dolled out all over, etc. Enter banking and accounting concepts, and remember this isn't just play money, there is real currency attached to everything. Contemplate cooperate efficiency, distribution costs, etc., all driving the bottom line. And finally, why doesn't the game maker just sell the currency directly, easier to distribute if you build it into the game, all the profits stay at home?
Simply fascinating to study and it would be very interesting to read an economists analysis. I wonder if there are inflation concerns in World of Warcraft and what the effect of a currency devaluation would have on another game. Will there ever be virtual accountants? There probably already are.
Saturday, June 16, 2007
Article: Hidden Tokyo
Tokyo, especially after dark, is notoriously hard to penetrate. With its winding mazelike streets, the city is a challenge for even seasoned taxi drivers. (Many bicyclists have GPS devices on their handlebars.) So imagine hunting down the restaurants, bars and clubs that are stashed away in patchwork alleys, nondescript apartment buildings, faceless office towers and basement stairwells illuminated by red bulbs.
Discreet, out-of-the-way bars have been a staple of Japanese culture for decades. Before World War II, Tokyo was filled with these pocket-sized dives — called nomiya (counter bars) — with space for just six or seven stools. Behind the counter was a proprietor, whose role was both confidant and caregiver to the regulars. When the city was rebuilt, however, most were bulldozed in favor of larger, glossier, more Westernized offerings.
Now a younger, postwar creative class is reviving nomiya culture — with a decidedly modern spin.
So Tokyo, and it seems to appropriate. Everything always struck me as small and private. Lots of little booths, private, public areas. I imagine most of that is due to lots of family living at home. Gotta get away from mom and dad at some point.
Friday, June 15, 2007
Article: Globalized Foods
Great article that shows how food production is globalizing. It almost reads like a chapter out of Friedman's "The World is Flat." Just as Dell and WalMart are making markets and pulling parts and goods from all over the world, Sara Lee is doing the same. What makes the food import business interesting is that the government doesn't have the span to regulate all the imports, the onus is on the company, and they know it. Every once in awhile, they are going to slip up, but their reputation is at stake. If Sara Lee gets it wrong much more than once, people will stop buying their products.
I like how this single article give so much credence to ideas of Friedman, Barnett, and Andy Kessler (Hedge fund guy). The markets will police themselves and scale to integrate that which is cheapest, money just sloshing its way around the globe.
What trade commission figures show is that ingredients are streaming in from more than 100 countries, including China, India, the Philippines and countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In some cases, consumer demand for more ethnic foods in the United States is pushing companies to import harder-to-find foods from exotic locales, but in other cases the phenomenon is simply a function of the way modern processed foods are assembled.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Quote: Move the Piano
- Anonymous
Quote: Life
Soren Kierkegaard
Danish philosopher (1813 - 1855)
Article: Liberty
A great opinion piece that steps away from partisan views and simply states the facts about democracy, totalitarianism, capitalism, etc. and suggest the real equalizer is liberty, and through liberty, integrated societies are created.
It is a good bunch of information to keep in the back of your mind as you watch the news.
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Crossfit Workout
10 pull ups
20 push ups (or dips if they have bars)
30 sit ups
40 squats
Monday, June 11, 2007
Article: American Goals for Iraq
Admiral Fallon tells Iraq that it had better start getting the American goals for Iraqis accomplished by Iraq for the Iraqis. That's how to fix a country with a deep rooted tribal culture, force them to adopt the American immigrant model that made early America great.
Sunday, June 10, 2007
Article: IED's
Saturday, June 9, 2007
Article: Writing on the Wall
The Secretary of the Army, now the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Seems like the writing is on the wall. Bush gives into to the Dem's, the Dem's say, we told you so. Petraus comes out in September and says, yeah, this isn't going to work anytime soon, Mullen, Gates, and Bush agree. It was the Iraqi's fault, they couldn't get it together. We'll try Baker-Hamilton now.
And then the good part, major strategic change in Iraq, pull out to the bases, train the Iraqi army, reduce troop levels, but more importantly reduce the casualty figures because everyone is on the base. The Shia delete the Sunni in a lot of places and you get the enclaves of Sunni here and there, Shia dominating and the Kurds in the north.
My guess is that will happen pretty quick, a year or so. I also bet it will be very ugly but not get that much media, simply no access and American probably wont want to here how it all went to pieces.
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Crossfit Workout
5 reps:
Power Clean
Front Squat
Push Press
Back Squat
Push Jerk
Jog 2 miles
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Blog: The Cost of Cancer
In Full:
Freakonomics Blog » The Cost of Cancer Drugs
There’s an incredibly interesting Q&A in today’s Wall Street Journal with Arthur D. Levinson, the CEO of biotech pioneer Genentech, mostly concerning the topic of the company’s cancer drugs. (There is a lot of interesting cancer news in the papers these days, mainly because of the annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in Chicago.)
Levinson regularly deals with complaints about the expense of certain cancer drugs. (There is a larger issue to be discussed here: why it’s medically and socially acceptable to spend so much money to extend life by only a few months — but that is a discussion for another time.) Here is something he said that, while certainly a defense of his own company, also presents an intriguing way of costing out the amount we spend on cancer medicine:
You don’t just crank these drugs out. My lab cloned a portion of the breast-cancer gene in 1982. And we started making antibodies to it in the mid-’80s. Then we got cell-culture results in the late ’80s and by the early ’90s we were getting animal results. And then approval was in December ‘98. So this goes back a long, long time. Unless these companies can get a return, we are not going to get the new medicines that are making such a difference to patients’ lives right now.
There’s another way to look at it — look at how much society is investing in cancer. In the absence of better care, 42% of everybody out there is going to get cancer. And half of those 42% are going to die of cancer. It’s the leading cause of death among Americans under age 85. So how much are we spending on drugs for cancer? We have a $12 trillion GDP [gross domestic product]. And we’re spending $15 billion. If I do that math, 1/800th of GDP for the leading cause of death. And people say cancer drugs are bankrupting America! Give me a break.
Keep in mind that the reason that “42% are going to die of cancer” is, in a twisted way, good news: many people are living long enough to die of cancer thanks to improvements in treating heart disease and stroke. That said, Levinson makes his point forcefully. The Journal is also hosting a discussion forum on the topic of drug costs.
Article: Messy Middle East
Friedman gives a nice overview of other problems in the Middle East and the potential for more savvy statesmanship that will be required for resolution. When you step back and really consider where the middle east is today and then the personalities (especially western) involved it makes you want to buy oil futures. By that I intend to infer that it isn't going to get much better anytime soon. I would say that the this crop of political candidates is the most interesting lot since I have been politically aware and perhaps you can find some hope there.
In full:
June 6, 2007
Op-Ed Columnist
What a Mess
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
RAMALLAH, West Bank
The Middle East has gotten itself tied into such an impossible knot that Biblical references or Shakespearian quotations simply don’t suffice anymore to describe how impossibly tangled politics has become here. Shira Wolosky, a Hebrew University English scholar, suggested to me that maybe Dr. Seuss, in “The Cat in the Hat,” offered the best way to sum up the Middle East today.
Then he shut the Things
in the box with the hook.
And the cat went away
With a sad kind of look.
“That is good,” said the fish.
“He has gone away. Yes.
but your mother will come.
She will find this big mess!
And this mess is so big
And so deep and so tall,
we can not pick it up.
There is no way at all!”
Just look around. Gaza is turning into Mogadishu. Hamas is shelling Israel. Israel is retaliating. Iraq is a boiling pot. Iran is about to go nuclear. Lebanon is being pulled apart. Syria is being investigated for murdering Lebanon’s prime minister. I could go on. Yes, this mess is so big and so tall. Who knows where to pick it up at all?
In Israel, officials are mulling all alternatives — from the Saudi peace initiative to negotiating with Hamas to opening talks with Syria to reoccupying Gaza to looking for a “trustee” for the West Bank — because no one is sure anymore what to do.
That is, the Left’s way — land for peace — was discredited by the collapse of Oslo. The Right’s way, permanent Israeli occupation of all “The Land of Israel,” was made impossible by Palestinian demographics and two uprisings. The third way, unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon and Gaza, has been discredited by Hezbollah’s attack from Lebanon and the Hamas rocket attacks from Gaza.
“Israel is in a place it has never been before,” said Moshe Halbertal, a Hebrew University philosophy professor. “It does not have a picture of where to go and how, so people are looking for a fourth way.”
It is impossible to predict what that fourth way will be. But it is easy to identify the new realities it will have to take into account.
First is the fact that Yasir Arafat’s Fatah group, which has long dominated Palestinian life, is in disarray. Fatah will not disappear, but it will never again totally dominate the Palestinian Authority. Fatah will have to share power with Hamas, which has largely wiped out Fatah in Gaza already. Sooner or later, the U.S. and Israel are going to have to drop the economic sanctions they imposed on Palestinians to pressure Hamas into recognizing Israel. “As repulsive as [Hamas] is to me as an Israeli, I don’t think it’s coming to the Palestinian Authority just to pay a visit — it is here to stay,” said Israeli TV’s top Arab affairs reporter, Ehud Yaari.
Israel’s real choice is between dealing with a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority or watching it collapse into little pieces, which Israel would have to pick up. (Think Iraq and Somalia.) West Bank and Gaza unemployment is now around 40 percent. Talking with Palestinians in Ramallah, the phrase I heard most was not “Israeli occupation” but “Palestinian disintegration.”
Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki told me that as bad as things are today, his polls show most Palestinians still don’t blame Hamas. They blame Israel and America for withholding funds from the Hamas government that Palestinians elected. The best way to diminish Hamas’s influence, or to moderate it, is by forcing it to assume responsibility. Ask it: “Do you want Palestinians to be able to work in Israel? Then sit down with Israel and work out the details.” We need to “force Hamas through a corridor of difficult decisions,” said Israeli strategist Gidi Grinstein. If America can talk to Iran, Israel can talk to Hamas.
Second, Hamas says it will only offer Israel a long-term cease-fire. Fine, take it. Fact No. 1: the real history of Israeli-Arab relations is: war, lull, war, lull, war, lull — from 1948 until today. Fact No. 2: “Since 1948,” said Mr. Yaari, “the Jews have always made better use of the lulls than the Arabs.” Israel doesn’t need Hamas’s recognition. It needs a long lull.
The third new reality is that Hamas’s shelling of Israel from Gaza means Israel can never hand over the West Bank to the Palestinians, without an international trustee — because from there Palestinians could close Israel’s airport with one rocket. Only Jordan, or an international force, can be that trustee.
Bottom line: I don’t know if there is a fourth way, but, if there is, it will have to include these new realities. Otherwise, this mess will get even bigger, deeper and taller.
Monday, June 4, 2007
Real Estate Online
This post covers the perpetration of a talk on how online services are influencing the real estate business. This collection of links is noteworthy:
Market and neighborhood information: Market Snapshot, Altos Research, Trulia and Neighboroo
Realtor information (reviews and commissions): HomeThinking and Redfin
Comprehensive database and listing information: Realtor.com, Zillow, and PropertyShark
Of those Neighboroo is a quick and easy Google maps tool that shows median home price for all the counties in the nation. I found it useful for looking for up and coming neighborhoods. I've always like zillow for their valuations and redfin will, in my view, be revolutionary. HomeThinking is a bit under-reviewed and I would imagine it would take awhile to develop the database. One that you would love to see take, but I doubt it will.
Sunday, June 3, 2007
Article: Simple Wine Stores
Great coverage of the emerging simple wine store. Instead of the Australian section you get the "Bold" section. I think the idea of taking the "connoisseur" out of wine and replacing it with "enjoyer" is a good thing. Wine shouldn't be hard and it would be nice to stop by a simple wine store and walk out with something you know you'll like.
Article: Victory in Iraq
This has always been something I have noticed about Iraqi culture, there has to be some kind of victory, real or perceived. Ed Wong does a good job of discussing why the current American strategy in Iraq isn't working, it just isn't Iraqi. He also references things that he notes on his "final tour," which to me implies that Wong is hanging the reporter's tablet up in Iraq. I think that is big news in and of its self. I've been reading his work for a long time. Telling when this caliber of journalist is stepping out. (Then again, maybe he is just taking a few months off).
Sitting in the cool recesses of his home, the white-robed sheik said he was a moderate, a supporter of democracy. It is for people like him that the Americans have fought this war. But the solution he proposes is not one the Americans would easily embrace.
“In the history of Iraq, more than 7,000 years, there have always been strong leaders,” he said. “We need strong rulers or dictators like Franco, Hitler, even Mubarak. We need a strong dictator, and a fair one at the same time, to kill all extremists, Sunni and Shiite.”
I was surprised to hear those words. But perhaps I was being naïve. Looking back on all I have seen of this war, it now seems that the Iraqis have been driving all along for the decisive victory, the act of sahel, the day the bodies will be dragged through the streets.
Saturday, June 2, 2007
Intervals and Workout
2 min run
2 min active rest
Cool Down, long rest
5 times:
10 kipping pull ups
30 sit ups
Friday, June 1, 2007
Men's Health Workout
Group 1:
8 55lb DB Chest Press
8 35lb DB Row
Group 2:
8 50lb DB Incline Press
6 115lb Wide Grip Deadlift
Group 3:
8 (135, 115, 115)lb Bench Press
45sec Swiss Ball Plank
Book: Running Money
6/1/07
Running Money is a memoir of Andy Kessler running a small hedge fun during the late 90’s tech bubble out of a small office in Silicon Valley. Andy takes the time to show us what kind of value he is seeking for his fund that isn’t trying to turn quick profit, rather take a longer, few year approach to finding “ten baggers” (stocks that will double 10 times over).
The fun money running stories aside, there was much to be learned about how money flows. He uses the example of the steam engine igniting the industrial revolution to explain how integrated circuits revolutionized the American intellectual property economy. The “scale” of the processor, or the steam engine, is such that everything needs it, from the cotton gin to the iron smelter, and from the browser company (Netscape) to the online vendor (Amazon).
Andy’s travels around the world and learns how the entire concern of a trade deficit is misunderstood. Perhaps the most interesting theme of the book is how American companies export a plan for a chip or a design for a part and then turn around and import the packaged product. Nothing of monetary value exported, only intellectual property, and then the goods are “purchased” back in. Hence the deficit, but then what do the foreign companies do with the money they made off of our ideas? They buy our t-bills and reinvest in our stocks there by driving our intellectual property economy. Simple powerful cycle. And of course the middle class rises in the manufacturing countries and they begin to produce a bit of their own intellectual property.
I like the business based globalized themes. The book is a great extension to Friedman’s The World is Flat.
Article and Blog: Jobs, Gates, and Sphere
Neat to read about these two amazing thinkers in one place. A long and sorted relationship they have had and the vision they bring when in the same room must have been truly amazing.
I've been slowly starting to embrace the "Sphere" link at the bottom of NYT articles. One click and you see related articles and blogs. It is a great way to find blogs and things that stem off of a given article. Further, it is a handy way to link to better coverage. I like the NYT as a well written clearinghouse of news. However, technology is often better covered other places, like in this case by the WSJ as they put the event on.