The Army Struggles

Army strained to near its breaking point (4/6/07) -- www.GovernmentExecutive.com

Kind of an abstract link but I think the tone of the article is just simply factual. Very Stimulus - Army going hard for 5 years or so / Response - Army is hurting.

I'll always maintain that the U.S. Army will be fine, it's been at it for more than 200 years, but that doesn't mean there aren't hard times ahead. Broken families and broken veterans will happen.

Trends in Dining

http://events.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/dining/reviews/07rest.html

I think what David Chang is doing at Momofuku Ko is exactly where dining is heading. Sure there will always been the ultra luxurious décor but I think you're seeing more and more "neighborhood" hot spots go simple with amazing food. And then, how does one incorporate technology into all aspects, just as the 10am click, six days in advance is required to hope for a seat at Ko. It's simply what's coming to a city near you.

Changing Enemies

Wa Po Article

The flavor changes over time. Several great points in this article.
First, the enemy in Iraq is changing. Al Qaeda is retreating to greener
pastures in Pakistan (and likely Africa). Drug lords remain and have to
protect their crop. So often that is overlooked. The number one export
from Afghanistan is opium. Think about that. I would be frustrated if
I was Columbia, like hey, we were doing that, how come we had to change
and they don't. Isn't it interesting how the goings on of the Middle
East differs so much from American involvement in South America.

Commodity Prices

Three views on ridiculous commodity prices these days, from Krugman...

Running Out of Planet to Exploit - New York Times:
"The first is that it’s mainly speculation — that investors, looking for high returns at a time of low interest rates, have piled into commodity futures, driving up prices. On this view, someday soon the bubble will burst and high resource prices will go the way of Pets.com.

The second view is that soaring resource prices do, in fact, have a basis in fundamentals — especially rapidly growing demand from newly meat-eating, car-driving Chinese — but that given time we’ll drill more wells, plant more acres, and increased supply will push prices right back down again.

The third view is that the era of cheap resources is over for good — that we’re running out of oil, running out of land to expand food production and generally running out of planet to exploit."

Global Commodity Inflation

David Ignatius - Perils in The Price Of Rice - washingtonpost.com

With so much turmoil in the financial markets (both globally and domestically) I feel as though I'm missing so much. Here's one that you just can't not consider in every economic related conversation you have. Global commodity inflation. It's rice over there (and sure it will come here), but Americans will settle for oil "complaints today.

And indeed, expensive Cuban Cigars (when the embargo lifts). And what else is a commodity, technology? How does that inflate, or does it, and have I now deviated from my thesis.

Best Quote from Ignatius' piece:

Independent truck drivers in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and other states staged protests against high fuel prices this week. What do they have in common with rice consumers in Vietnam and soybean buyers in Indonesia and pasta aficionados in Italy? More than they probably think.

Pitching With Purpose - New York Times

Pitching With Purpose - New York Times

Brooks reminds that practice makes perfect. A timeless tradition. He relates this to baseball. Maybe something you use in a speech one day.

Cuba is Joining the World

Raul Castro: Cubans can have cell phones - Yahoo! News

The first line of this sums it up, "first microwaves, now cell phones." Cuba is joining up. I think it's reasonable to assume that we'll all be smoking Cuban cigars in the U.S. in five year's time. Further, I continue to agree with Tom Barnett in his book where he predicts that Cuba will be a state of the USA in 25 years or less. Wow.

Mini Projectors

Coming Soon, to Any Flat Surface Near You - New York Times

The potential here is pretty significant. Sure the article says you'll soon be project movies from you cellphone onto seat backs, but what else. Micro imaging will scale big time. Interesting to see it become affordable.

Five Years of Iraq

Scions of the Surge Newsweek Iraq War Newsweek.com


The press has done a nice job reviewing the ups (?) and downs of the Iraq situation as 5 years have passed since its inception. This news week article tells the story of a company commander that could likely be replicated for any village or neighborhood in Iraq. The Americans are the glue that is holding Iraq together. The military, in the absence of any real strategic policy, has simply found a way to sustain and hold the country together.


Everyday, the U.S. Military is more glue like and the "how do we get out" question is hard to answer.

Brooks Breaks the Credit Crunch Down

The Bailout Artists - New York Times

Brooks always does a great job of presenting a very complex topic in a very simple to understand manner. Essentially, he is discussing the role the government should play in facilitating a free market. Is it a free market if the government facilitates it? I say so, and as much as I believe in Ann Rand style objectivisim when panic and irrational behavior positions to do deep economic damage the government should take steps to bring everyone back to reality.

In Brook's words:

We do seem to have reached some Bernanke-era consensus. In normal times, the free market works well. But in a crisis like this one, few are willing to sit back and let the market find its own equilibrium.

Slum Tours

Heads Up: Poverty Tours - Slum Visits: Tourism or Voyeurism? - Travel - New York Times

The concept and idea of Slum tours has been around for awhile, 16 years, started in Rio, the article points out. There have been many a Discovery Channel special on them as well. The question I'll ask and answer is it participation or observation travel. I say observation, but to truly participate in these run down places where the rules aren't understood even after a few years of study. To participate you would need the language, and some connection.

In this case, I tend to think the observation is good, we as a society need to know what is going on around us, good or bad. Change begins with awareness. I also tend to think it's a boon for the slums as there are chances to see wares, etc.

Sinking the Fallon Ship

Final reflections on the Fallon article in Esquire (Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog)

I've been waiting to blog Admiral Fallon's (the military's former central command commander overseeing the Middle East) retirement until we heard a good recap from Barnett. Barnett's article in this months Esquire was specifically mentioned by the New York Times as the straw that broke the camels back with the Bush Administration and Fallon. I'm intrigued by this because I have always been one one hand, amazed by the depth of Barnett's thinking and on the other in strong agreement with his ideas.

What Barnett points out is that his article highlighted the debate between the military and the administration and possibilities in and with Iran. Something that is generally kept very quite. I for one, agree with Barnett, this debate needs to be very public. This policy effects everything the military is currently doing and I think we can all agree that the American people need to weigh in on this. Naturally, the Bush administration knows where everyone's weight will be as far as terse talk with Iran. Goodness, we can't possibly be serious enough about entertaining new Iranian policy to oust Fallon.

Krugman's Face-Slap Theory

The Face-Slap Theory - New York Times

I've been enjoying Krugman's ongoing comparison of FED actions really being ways to face slap the business marketplace. I think too often people think that the FED is this holy body of policy makers when in reality they control interest rates by control the amount of money they loan banks in the short term, like over night or for about a month. This in turn allows the bond markets create the actual rate. Sure, things like HELOC's and credit cards a based on the FED's prime rate, but that happens because the bond market allow it.

What's concerning when reading a column from a very well respected economist like Krugman is that he is legitimately concerned that the face slaps might not work. Rescission is one thing, maybe a healthy side of a long growing economy, but depression, that might be another story. Interesting times are these in the financial world.

Crisis in South America?

Crisis Over Colombian Raid Ends in Handshakes - New York Times

Did you know there was a crises in northern South America? The international and specifically American media has been rather significantly overlooking some serious goings on down there. And sure, I link to a NYT article above, so it's being covered, but not to aggressively. Indeed, defense, in general, seems down in terms of news coverage.

That said, take a look at what's going on down there: Tank battalions massing on boarders, Hugo's involved, of course, and FARC kingpin's getting whacked left and right. And of course the Colombian and American governments have been playing nicely (who doesn't like a rich uncle?) for years and years. Makes you wonder what exactly the nature of U.S. involvement down there might be. I think it's safe to say that at least a few American tax dollars are at work right now.

David Ignatius - Wall Street Bank Run - washingtonpost.com

David Ignatius - Wall Street Bank Run - washingtonpost.com

Ignatius does an amazingly concise job of summarizing the problem in the Credit market right now. Banks aren't trusting each other and valuing a grouping of 10,000 home loans is near impossible. Further, the bail out is coming from the sovereign wealth money.

What I want to know is what do we think happens next? Naturally all speculation, and I think the American Economy will remain the most resolute innovative actor in the globalized marketplace, but boy, there is a lot of money in these credit markets.

More Fire in Kosovo/Serbia

Rioters Attack U.S. Embassy in Belgrade - New York Times

It will be interesting to watch how much coverage, at least in the U.S., Kosovo declaring its independence will get. In my view, this is big stuff. You see the Serbs say "Kosovo, what Kosovo, that state down there is part of Serbia." The Kosovars, at least by their recent declaration, and are majority Albanians (the ethnic variety), would tell you that Kosovo is independent. Russia, and many others would, and did, take the Serbian side. Others are still figuring it out, and some western Europeans are find with Kosovo being independent.

Of course the west is all about Kosovar independence, because honestly, how long has NATO has been marching around the place in army equipment? (Since the early 90's).

And what is of course appropriate, or perhaps expected, is that the Serbs are good and mad at the U.S. hence the attack in Belgrade, Serbia.

In all, this is a big tipping point for the region and the next few weeks will likely set the course for the next era in that region.

Foodies go to Tokyo

Where to Go in 2008 - Foodie Destination: Istanbul - Travel - New York Times



This price confirms my own belief. Tokyo is the best eating city in the world. No way the easiest but the Japanese insist on a quality a cut well above everyone else. You also have to figure Tokyo got more Michelin Stars than any other city simply because they have that many more people. But still, the quality.

Best Obama/Clinton Commentary Yet

Best Obama/Clinton Commentary Yet
Questions for Dr. Retail - New York Times

Brooks op-ed done in a really neat way that equates Clinton to Safeway, a commodity provider, and Obama to Whole Foods, the value added solution. And then predicts that indeed the super-delegates will decide who runs the Dem's ticket.

So what do you want in your Dem, commodity, or value added? Do you shop at Safeway or Whole Foods, or maybe both?

Super Fat Tuesday

The Cooper Concerns - New York Times

Brooks' column is worth reading today. And what a day today will be for the US. Brooks hits the nail on the head here, Hillary can be a great president, but there is some parts that could be considered concerning and the story here of her very icy sounding interactions with other politicians ought to be considered especially as Americans look to choose a president that might improve U.S. global opinion.

Kessler on the Future of the Investment Banks

As always, Andy Kessler gets it, he called the last bubble and I think with his experience in Silicon Valley and on the Street his musings are pretty accurate. Goldman is going to do something, they beat subprime for all intensive purposes. Great "future headline" stuff. Do you by some GS, or maybe C is at a low?

Cut:
Andy Kessler: WSJ: What's Next for the Banks

My view is that firms that successfully combine banking and investment banking will walk away with the prize, by being able to offer a full range of services to clients -- short-term loans against assets or receivables as well as bonds and equity for long-term projects, the kind of underwriting and trading that requires large amounts of capital. The inevitable consolidation that should have occurred after Glass-Steagall (the 1933 law that separated banks and investment banks) was repealed in 1999 had been on hold while everyone chased easy profits. But now the shakeout is here.

Goldman Sachs will own a bank, maybe even Citigroup (Goldman's $85 billion market capitalization might be able to swallow Citi's $125 billion value) and strip it down to what it needs. JP Morgan should reunite the House of Morgan by merging with Morgan Stanley, and become a full-service powerhouse. But JP Morgan could buy Merrill or Lehman or Bear Stearns instead. Bank of America will merge with who's left. But don't count out others who have done well with capital. Fortress Investment Group, despite a rocky IPO a year ago, has a powerful real estate arm that could own loan origination and servicing and enough assets to buy its way into the banking or investment banking business. Same for the Blackstone Group.

Capital flows a lot more fluidly around the globe these days. Expect consolidation to start now. The real winners on Wall Street will be the ones with huge stockpiles of capital who listen to the market, and who are fleet of foot enough to smell out and deploy their capital creating instruments that global growth companies need, rather than false profits from eating their own sausage.

The Big Five?: Goldman CitiSachs, House of Morgan, Bear of America, Fortress Lehman Lynch and Blackstone Suisse.